BofA: The situation of the pandemic in Greece is worrying

Her Eleftherias Kourtali

The situation with the pandemic has become particularly worrying in Europe and especially in the eurozone countries, especially in some countries, including Greece, as noted by Bank of America in a new report, although at present it does not expect to Strict restrictive measures are again imposed and thus maintains its strong forecasts for the course of Greece’s development this year, however it does not rule out that there may be some mild restrictions on activities that are more “vulnerable” to the spread of the pandemic.

More specifically, the picture of the pandemic is rapidly deteriorating throughout the eurozone, while new cases have accelerated particularly in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Greece, according to BofA. At present, figures from France, Italy, Spain and Portugal remain more reassuring. Bank of America estimates Rt transmission rate is above 1 in all EU countries, and although pressure on hospitals remains subdued compared to 2021, the deterioration in occupancy rates in some countries is noticeable, such as in Germany. COVID-related deaths remain largely under control, thanks to vaccinations.

BofA does not expect a broad return of restrictive measures in Europe, and therefore does not change its key economic forecasts, keeping its estimate for a jump in Greek GDP of 8.6% this year stable and at the highest levels among all countries. However, it is cautious and will therefore closely monitor the evolution of the pandemic situation in the countries so that it is likely to adjust its estimates accordingly.

It is worth noting that BofA keeps the estimates stable for 2022-2023, placing the growth of Greece at 3.8% and 2.5% respectively. In terms of inflation, he estimates that this year it will move to 0.4% from -1.3% in 2020, in 2022 it will jump to 1.9% and in 2023 to 1.2%.

According to the economic climate and uncertainty index of BofA – European Mood Tracker – there is a deterioration in the last two weeks compared to the levels of the two months September-October, especially in Spain. In France and Italy the market psychology remains resilient and there is a clear improvement in the UK, perhaps because the number of new cases already seems to have peaked in the country and is declining.

In the euro area, the economic uncertainty index gives relatively encouraging signs. The fall in gas prices reduces the corresponding uncertainty associated with the energy crisis, while the concerns raised by COVID do not appear to have increased significantly. The acceleration of new cases, however, seems worrying in the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Greece and Denmark, as BofA points out.

The Bank of America does not expect EU governments to impose very strict restrictions at this stage, but some relatively mild restrictions on high-risk activities cannot be ruled out. In the Netherlands there is a recommendation by the medical committees for two weeks of cessation of events, with the closure of cinemas / theaters and some additional restrictions on opening hours and the rules of distancing for bars and restaurants.