In its quarterly outlook report, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has noted that “risks to the price outlook are tilted to the upside for now, leveling off roughly after“.
Additional comments
It is likely that the Japanese economy recovers as the effects of the pandemic and supply constraints ease.
You have to be attentive to the movements of the financial and currency markets and its impact on Japan’s economy and prices.
Uncertainty about the Japanese economy is very high.
The Japanese economy is rebounding as the impact of the pandemic subsides.
Inflation expectations rise.
Exports increase as a trend, but are affected by supply constraints.
Production is under strong downward pressure.
Consumption is likely to continue to rise even as real household incomes come under pressure from higher prices.
Corporate profits will remain high as a whole, thanks in part to the weakness of the yen.
Exports and production are likely to continue to increase modestly as the supply constraint eases.
Median Forecast Core CPI for fiscal year 2022 is +1.3 vs. +0.9% expected in April.
Median Forecast Core CPI for FY2023 is +1.4 vs. +1.2% expected in April.
Median Forecast Core CPI for FY2024 is +1.5 vs. +1.5% expected in April.
The median of the forecast Real GDP for fiscal year 2022 is +2.4%compared to the +2.9% expected in April.
The median of the forecast Real GDP for fiscal year 2023 is +2.0%compared to the +1.9% expected in April.
The median of the forecast Real GDP for fiscal year 2024 is +1.3%compared to the +1.1% expected in April.
Source: Fx Street
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