THE Joseph Borel in a new article he wrote, he referred to Ukraine war and pressures on Russia to end the armed conflict, which has been ongoing since late February.
In an article entitled “Moscow will have to choose either butter or guns(Moscow will have to choose either butter or guns), says that it is not worth hoping that the sanctions will change the strategic calculations of the Russian president Vladimir Putin in the near future, because it is not driven primarily by economic considerations. However, he is convinced that over time, the Russian leadership will be forced to choose between “cannons” and “butter”, that is, whether to continue the war or choose to maintain the standard of living of its people.
He also points out that the EU is gradually weaning itself from its energy dependence on Russia. “By the end of 2022, we will have reduced Russian oil imports by 90% and we are rapidly reducing natural gas imports. These decisions are gradually freeing us from a dependency that has long hindered our policy choices in the face of Vladimir Putin’s aggression.” Borel writes that Putin “probably believed that Europe would not dare to proceed with sanctions because of its energy dependence” and admits that “such rapid weaning from Russian energy also creates serious difficulties for many EU countries and for several economic sectors.”
Still, the head of European diplomacy, writes that “some may wonder if these sanctions really have an impact on the Russian economy.” “The simple answer is yes. Altough Russia exports a lot of raw materials, it also has no choice but to import a lot of high value added products that it does not manufacture. For all advanced technologies, it is 45% dependent on Europe and 21% on the United States, compared to just 11% on China.”
Borel also points out that the sanctions also limit Russia’s military capabilities, particularly the manufacture of high-precision weapons. “In the military sector, which is critical in the context of the war in Ukraine, sanctions limit Russia’s ability to produce precision missiles such as the Iskander or the KH 101. “Almost all foreign car manufacturers have also decided to withdraw from Russia, and the few cars produced by Russian manufacturers will be sold without airbags or automatic transmission.”
Source: News Beast
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