After the relaxation of preventive measures against the coronavirus, Brazil has again recorded an increase in the numbers of Covid-19 in recent weeks. Between May 22 and 28, the country had the worst epidemiological week of cases of the disease since March this year. The incidence of cases occurs mainly in the states of the Midwest, South and Southeast of Brazil, according to data from the National Council of Health Secretaries (Conass).
However, the growth of deaths by Covid did not rise in the same proportion. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the month of May 2022 was the period with the fewest recorded deaths. According to a survey carried out by CNN Agency , with data from the Health Departments, May had 3,179 deaths from Covid. In April 2021, which was the worst month, 81,266 people died from the disease.
From March 2020 until now, Brazil has registered more than 31 million cases of Covid-19 and more than 666 thousand deaths related to the virus.
In the five months of 2022 alone, 8,693,140 people were infected with the disease and 47,620 deaths were recorded. Most of these records took place in the first quarter of the year, when the Ômicron variant, which was identified in November 2021, spread through the population. The strain was classified as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization (WHO) because of its high transmissibility.
At the time, the country registered 1,305,447 infections in a week (from January 23 to January 29). After the peak of Ômicron, the country saw a drop in the number of infections, which started between March 13 and 19, when the country recorded 267,132 cases.
The weekly moving average of cases reached 96,513 between the 15th and 21st of May. Now, however, the number has jumped to 166,777 (considering the period between the 22nd and 28th of May).
THE CNN Alexandre Naime Barbosa, vice president of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases (SBI), professor, researcher and infectious disease physician at Unesp, said that the increase in cases can be justified “by a super dissemination due to the complete abolition of protection measures, including the use of masks in closed environments”.
However, the infectious disease specialist emphasizes that the situation is not being followed up directly with a correlated growth in terms of hospitalization and deaths. “Precisely because of the protective effects of vaccines on serious outcomes, such as hospitalizations and deaths. But clearly the vaccines are not as effective against Omicron as they were against other variants in terms of [conter] transmission,” he says.
Another factor that may have contributed to the increase in registrations is the availability of self-tests.
Naime Barbosa believes that this increase in cases happens because the population has reduced the perception of risk. “People think that, as they are vaccinated, they don’t need much more care. Before, they sought testing with any symptoms,” she said.
Increase in cases by state
São Paulo is the state that recorded the most cases of and deaths from Covid-19. In all, until Wednesday, June 1, the federative unit had accumulated 169,331 deaths and 5,520,290 infections of the disease.
On May 1, SP recorded 2,724 cases of Covid in 24 hours. On the last day of the month, there were 8,421 new infections – an increase of 209.1%. The moving average, which considers the last seven days, stood at 5,651 in the state on Wednesday. On May 1, the indicator was at 4,086.
The growth of contamination made the Scientific Committee on the coronavirus in the state recommend the use of masks in closed places again.
In second place, the state that accumulates the most infections is Minas Gerais, with 3,415,691 cases, followed by Paraná, with 2,529,375 cases.
In Minas, the moving average of cases on Wednesday marked 4,045. A month earlier, on May 1st, the average was 702. Paraná had a moving average of infections at 4,495 on the first day of June –30 days earlier, the index was 1,936.
Rio de Janeiro, the second state with the most deaths (73,830), saw the moving average of Covid cases more than double in a month. On the first day of May, the indicator marked 1,233. Already on June 1, the moving average was 2,952.
In the Midwest, Goiás had a moving average of cases at 2,486 on June 1. A month earlier, the average was 1,201. Mato Grosso do Sul, which has 585,083 infections accumulated since the beginning of the pandemic, had a moving average of 353 this Wednesday. On May 1, the indicator marked 135.
The states in the Northeast and North did not have the same impact as the South, Southeast and Midwest. The mobile indicator of infections was 299 this Wednesday in Bahia. On May 2nd, the index scored 264. Roraima, for example, had a moving average scoring 17 on June 1st and 9 on May 1st.
In addition to taking into account the population of the states, the vice president of SBI said that there is also a lack of a plan for mass testing in these places.
“There is a lack of a single policy to deal with the pandemic. A central testing plan, isolation, lines of care,” he said.
Subnotifications
According to the infectologist, the underreporting of states, especially the poorest ones, hinder the understanding of the exact moment of the pandemic in the country.
“Unfortunately, the poorer the place, the less detail it will have. There is no reason why these places [Norte e Nordeste] have a lower transmission rate than elsewhere in the country. This is not an effect of the vaccine, it is an effect of underreporting,” she says.
Vaccination progress
According to survey of CNN Agency , until May 30, São Paulo had 60.41% of the population with three doses of the vaccine. Minas Gerais has 44.52%, and Rio de Janeiro has 36.80% of the population with a booster dose.
In Paraná, 45.52% of people were vaccinated with three doses until the date of the survey.
In the Midwest, Mato Grosso do Sul applied the three doses to 38.64% of the population, followed by the Federal District (39.18%) and Goiás (32.73%).
In the Northeast, Bahia has 39.03% of the population vaccinated with the third dose. Alagoas has 30.14% and Maranhão has 20.96%.
In the North region, Acre has 22.27% of the population with the three doses, while Pará has 22.51%. Roraima appears with 14.24% of the entire eligible population with a complete vaccination cycle.
For the researcher, it is necessary to change the focus of coping with Covid, Naime Barbosa says that there needs to be better communication in terms of vaccination.
He states that today the individual without the third dose is the host of the disease – which may imply the emergence and development of new variants.
“It is no longer possible to talk about lockdown. It is necessary to protect the most vulnerable people and facing Covid requires national integration”, she concludes.
Source: CNN Brasil
