Inspired by the example led by US Congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, Brazil created its own proposal for Green New Deal, the GND-BR, presented on Wednesday (11), at COP26. The objective of the plan, led by Deputy Alessandro Molon (PSB-RJ), is to reactivate economic activity, generating employment and income through investment in low-carbon sectors and activities, building a resilient infrastructure and expanding public services for the service to the population.
Among the results, the creation of 9.5 million jobs, with 5.4 million in formal occupations, at an average salary of R$ 26,600 per year.
It also forecasts a growth of R$ 1.3 trillion (US$ 240.6 billion) in the country’s economic activity and R$ 121 billion more per year in tax revenue from the economic expansion that should be driven by the plan.
Even with these advances, the plan foresees 1 gigaton of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) less emissions per year.
“The essence of the model is to seek a synergistic solution for the social, economic and environmental agenda. It is not generating economic costs. Rather, it is through spending on social and environmental improvements that we will activate economic improvement. The issue is not just increasing the GDP, it’s having a bigger and better GDP”, says Carlos Eduardo Young, a professor at the Institute of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and one of the researchers in the study.
The original New Deal, which inspired the creation of the GND plans, was an economic recovery program carried out under the US President’s administration. Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1945). The main objective was to recover the American economy after the 1929 crisis due to the crash of the New York Stock Exchange.
Influenced by the ideas of economist John Keynes, the plan foresaw the State’s participation in the economy through the regulation of transactions and production, in addition to large investments, such as public works.
The five thematic axes of the plan
The Brazilian plan, based on economic studies led by a group of researchers, proposes to be carried out with fiscal responsibility. It is based on 30 actions that are divided into five thematic axes:
- land use and forests
- infrastructure
- just and sustainable economic transition
- cities
- policy and regulatory changes
Each of them presents actions and goals with defined costs. on the axis infrastructure, one of the actions is to electrify the public transport fleet, and the goal is to replace 50% of the bus fleet.
In cities, which the researchers called the “shock” axis, as it demanded about half of the investments. It contains the proposal to encourage and improve solid waste management, with the elimination of 100% of dumps and the rehabilitation of these areas, in addition to the reduction of dry recyclable waste and wet waste in landfills.
Some actions encompass several goals, as in the case of the axis land use and forests. To promote low-carbon agriculture, it is proposed, for example, to increase by 4 million hectares the area under integrated crop-livestock-forest systems, as well as to expand the area of planted forests in degraded areas by 3 million hectares.
the axis policy and regulatory changes provides for the review of guidelines and conduct of public policies to increase environmental guarantees, strengthen institutional relations and generate structures to sustain change.
The creators argue that it is possible to generate more and better jobs (with higher salaries and levels of formalization), prioritizing the use and training of local labor.
For this, the intention is to invest in more efficient technologies in the use of natural resources, generate less greenhouse gas emissions, reduce environmental impacts e reduce poverty and the inequalities socioeconomic and environmental factors.
The investment required to meet the plan’s goals is estimated at R$509 billion per year (US$91.2 billion per year), equivalent to 6.9% of Brazilian GDP (2019). The value, according to Young, is close to the American GND.
According to the document, if the same amount were invested in the current model of growth of the Brazilian economy, it would generate a lower level of economic activity, jobs (including formal jobs), lower wages and an increase of 0.16 gigatonnes of CO2 in emissions.
“Based on what exists in the literature, we sought the best estimate to reach the goal linked to the concept of sustainable development. We use a set of economic simulation techniques”, comments Young.
The researchers argue that the costs of not making the plan are higher and that the GND-BR can put the country back on the tracks of the NDC, the Nationally Determined Contribution, the assumed goal, based on the Paris Agreement, for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
While the proposal begins to be debated here, the United States and Europe advance in the construction of their GNDs.
Economist Sergio Besserman explains that a large investment program such as this one works a lot with energy transition, mainly by removing fossil fuel subsidies to invest in renewable energy.
“It is important to unlock the fundamentals of the global macroeconomics, in the sense that, while carbon is not priced, long-term investments live in very great uncertainty. Will I be able to use this energy source? What is the rate of return when carbon is internalized in prices? This uncertainty hinders the decision to invest”, evaluates Besserman.
For him, the ideal time to leverage these programs will be when the global investment rate rises. Despite directly attacking the issue of the energy matrix, the plan is not limited to that.
“[O plano] It directs all sectors of the economy to move towards the green economy. As it is defined by public investment and a lot of public policy regulation, there is no way to do it without a quick withdrawal of subsidies from fossil fuels, which today represent in the world almost US$ 500 billion directly, and US$ 1 trillion indirectly. This has to end.”
Reference: CNN Brasil
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