Brexit: Johnson clings to the sovereignty of his fishing

While progress is real in other areas, fishing remains the main bone of contention between European and British negotiators after a weekend of intense discussions between Michel Barnier and his counterpart David Frost. And yet, the European Union has made an effort by conceding, for several weeks, a restriction of 15 to 18% of its catches in the British exclusive economic zone. In exchange for this, European ships would still be admitted; the agreement would cover several years (10 years?) in order to give European fishermen economic predictability and the capacity to invest.

But for now, Boris Johnson does not want to hear anything. He considers that British sovereignty must absolutely prevail and would only be ready for an annual agreement with European fishermen. “It’s technically impossible. We cannot renegotiate an agreement covering a hundred species each year, ”they repeat in Brussels. Of course, if the Europeans restrict, however small, their catches in British waters, the converse must be true and British ships will also have to return land …

Overfishing denounced in a European report

The British could advantageously rely on a very recent report by the European Court of Auditors which underlines the failure of the common fisheries policy in the preservation of marine species. Fishing quotas have not allowed sufficient regeneration of essential marine ecosystems and habitats. It must be said that the approximately 3,000 protected maritime areas represent only… 1% of the EU’s maritime surface. The legislation is over a quarter of a century old and does not take into account the latest scientific knowledge. Overfishing still exists, especially in the Mediterranean. In the Atlantic, it is a little better, considers the report which mainly focused on four countries (Italy, France, Spain and Portugal).

Be that as it may, the European proposal on fishing will undoubtedly meet with bitterness on the French side. The fishermen do not want to restrict their access to UK waters in any way. They contest its legitimacy in the name of customary law which preceded the common fisheries policy by several centuries. The Macron government, both through Annick Girardin, Minister Delegate for Fisheries, and through the words of Clément Beaune (Secretary of State for European Affairs), has undertaken to support them and to continue the fight, even in the -beyond 1^is January, the deadline after which the British will leave the single market.

The British, moreover, do not seem in any way pressed for time and do not care much about the time needed for parliamentary ratification of this vast agreement on future relations. However, observers believe Boris Johnson has a political agenda in mind and will seek to ride the good news by deconfining his country and then announcing a deal with the EU.

Car manufacturers stockpile

The other British sectors that will be impacted are nevertheless concerned. Like the automotive sector which, in the event of a “no deal”, fears the establishment of customs tariffs of 10%, according to the WTO regime. Upstream of 1^is In January, automakers built up additional stocks of cars and parts in the UK.

Michel Barnier reported on some progress to Union ambassadors and European parliamentarians at the end of last week. European negotiators detailed how a balanced deal would be attractive to the British economy, but only if the necessary counterparts are met by London. And first and foremost, the “level playing field”, in other words fair competition rules, including with regard to State aid.

A text 98% agreed

At this stage, while the legal text is 98% secure, it is up to Boris Johnson to make a political choice: to cling to the European continent in good faith, to accept the rules of the game, and to remain an extremely commercial nation. with its continental neighbors. Or, break this proximity with the EU and turn to other international partners to compensate, as best they can, the rise in tariffs that British consumers will suffer, at least initially.

However, the international situation changed with the election of Joe Biden and the departure of his so-called ally, Donald Trump. Biden intends to renew a more fruitful partnership with Europe and will be uncompromising vis-à-vis the British regarding the protection of the peace agreement in Ireland. The British Prime Minister, if he wants to normalize his relations with the Democratic administration, will therefore have to revise his law on the internal market and clean up the clause which allows London to not respect international agreements. Moreover, there will be no free trade agreement with the EU if this clause were to be maintained …

Conflict resolution mechanism stumbles on fishing

The European Union is finally waiting for Boris Johnson to take a step towards it in terms of conflict resolution. A good agreement cannot rest on the given word, it requires a precise mechanism of conflict resolution with cross suspension of the provisions in the event of disregard by one of the parties. For now, Johnson refuses that this mechanism applies to the fishing industry. It is an essential subject which blocks, again, any global agreement at this stage.

For the rest, but on condition that the above-described obstacles are removed, the EU has therefore proposed that trade in goods should not be subject to any tariff and any quota by agreeing to customs facilities. Regarding services, the chapter on public procurement has been finalized. Financial services are not part of the deal as the EU will unilaterally decide whether or not to grant financial equivalency to the City. On the other hand, the protection of geographical indications is still under discussion.

The positive influence of Johnson’s fiancée

When it comes to the single energy market, the British here are asking. This allows Michel Barnier to operate a lever equivalent to that of fishing for London. The negotiators agreed on nuclear safety (Euratom). Basic agreement has been reached on cooperation in air transport, aviation safety and road transport. But access to the “Single European Sky” remains subject to acceptance of the “level playing field”.

Of the 11 negotiating tables, some do not relate to the economy but to sovereign areas. Progress has been made in judicial and police cooperation, as well as mobility and social security coordination. The British wish to participate in certain European programs. Everything will depend on the concessions they make on the issues that block. It is not yet clear whether the future partnership will be a mixed agreement or the exclusive competence of the EU. The ratification process would then be simplified since, in the second hypothesis, only the Council and the European Parliament would be called upon to decide, and not the national parliaments.

The Europeans, who have been camping in their positions for months, are now waiting for the last “moves” from London. The role of Carrie Symonds, the companion of “BoJo”, in the elimination of the most doctrinaire Brexiters in the entourage of the Prime Minister gives some glimmers of hope in Brussels.