Brexit, recovery plan, climate, Turkey: the EU facing multiple challenges

The program for the next few days was already shaping up to be complex for the 27. Between the release of the stimulus plan, the climate objective and possible sanctions against Turkey, European leaders expected heated discussions. Three days away from a chopper for negotiations, Brexit is also on the agenda. The fate of discussions on the post-Brexit relationship will be sealed on Sunday: this is what British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen decided at a dinner in Brussels on Wednesday, again noting their deep differences.

The head of the European executive will report on the discussions to the heads of state and government, but no decision is expected on this point at the summit. Meanwhile, British and European negotiators will once again be hard at work to try to unblock deadlocked talks, three weeks before the final breakdown. On another major blocking subject, that of the post-Covid recovery plan (750 billion euros) and the 2021-2027 EU budget (1,074 billion), paralyzed by a Hungarian and Polish veto, the horizon on the other hand seems to emerge.

The Twenty-Seven will have to vote on a compromise reached on Wednesday by the German EU presidency with Budapest and Warsaw, opposed to a mechanism conditioning the payment of European funds on respect for the rule of law. The mechanism, unchanged, was accompanied by an “explanatory” statement intended to address the concerns of the two countries. The text, consulted by Agence France-Presse, specifies in particular the possibility of seizing the European Court of Justice on the legality of the mechanism before its application, even if it means delaying it by several months.

The question of sanctions against Turkey

“Victory! We have succeeded in dissociating ideological injunctions and financial aid,” Hungarian justice minister Judit Varga proclaimed on Twitter on Wednesday. “This is going in the right direction. The chances are real to end this difficult situation”, rejoiced a diplomat. The lifting of the Hungarian and Polish vetoes would unblock the procedure for adopting the recovery plan and the 2021-2027 budget.

Another sensitive issue, that of sanctions against Turkey, the threat of which was brandished in October because of its gas exploration work in maritime areas disputed with Greece and Cyprus. If all the member states deplore Ankara’s attitude, “interests diverge and discussions promise to be difficult”, predicts a European official. “There will be decisions, but their scope has not yet been accepted,” confirms a European minister. Several states, including Germany, Italy and Poland, refuse to go as far as economic sanctions or an embargo against a NATO member country.

But “the behavior of Turkey has strengthened the unity of the EU (…) the message will be firm”, wants to believe a diplomat. The desire to maintain dialogue “does not mean turning a blind eye to provocations,” said another. Leaders should agree more easily on the need to coordinate in the face of Covid-19 to avoid a third wave of contamination and to organize future vaccination campaigns together.

“Equity” of the climate effort

Debates should heat up on the climate: the Twenty-Seven are due to vote on Thursday on their new greenhouse gas emissions target for 2030. The Commission’s proposal for a reduction of “at least 55% “compared to the 1990 level, against a target of 40% currently, is not contested, but the modalities are. “The distribution of efforts cannot be simply based on GDP, nor mechanically linked to economic growth,” warns a diplomat. Still very dependent on coal, Poland rejects any national objective, fearing heavy economic consequences.

To avoid a Warsaw veto, the Twenty-Seven could stick to a “collective” objective, the result of “an effort that will take into account fairness and solidarity, leaving no one behind”, according to one version provisional conclusions of the summit obtained by Agence France-Presse.

Finally, the fight against terrorism will be on the agenda of discussions on Friday, after the recent jihadist attacks in France and Austria. Leaders should call for the swift adoption of a regulation binding platforms to remove terrorist content within the hour, still under discussion between MEPs and states. French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to make proposals for enhanced control of security at the external borders of the Schengen area of ​​free movement.