The next move to ease restrictions on England is not expected to put unbearable pressure on health services, even if it leads to an increase in Covid-19, assured today the scientific advisers of the British government.
However, scientists have pointed out that an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, to some extent, remains very likely, but it is not certain when this will happen and on what scale.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson is expected to announce later today that England may proceed with Phase 2 of the “road map” for the removal of λοκντάουν. This means that from next week the restaurant will be able to reopen, outdoors and all retail stores will open.
SAGE, the scientific advisory team for emergency response, said the “opening” would not flood the National Health Service (NHS), even if cases increased, provided the successful vaccination program continued smoothly. the citizens.
“Any resurgence in imports and deaths after Phase 2 of the Roadmap alone is highly unlikely to put unbearable pressure on the NHS,” SAGE said in its March 29 meeting minutes, which were released today.
SAGE relied on the analysis of the Scientific Flu Pandemic Modeling Group (SPI-M), which examined the models developed by Imperial College London, the University of Warwick and its School of Hygiene and Tropical Diseases. According to SPI-M, a new peak of the pandemic could occur in summer or autumn. The exact time and size will depend on how people will behave after the restrictions are lifted.
Whether Phases 3 and 4 will proceed regarding the relaxation of the lockdown, in order to remove the restrictions on social contacts in June, will depend on the data that the scientists will collect after each step.
The SPI-M estimates do not take into account the possibility of variations of the new coronavirus not being covered by the vaccines, nor the relaxation of travel regulations.
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