British intelligence chief says Russia has lost spying capabilities

The head of the UK’s foreign intelligence service believes Russia is losing steam in its invasion of Ukraine and has lost its ability to spy in Europe “by half” after the expulsion of more than 400 Russian intelligence officers from cities across the country. Europa and the arrest of several undercover spies posing as civilians.

Richard Moore, head of MI6, told Jim Sciutto of CNN at the Aspen Security Forum, that since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, European countries have expelled “about 400 Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover” across the bloc.

“And we think that in the UK that probably halved their ability to spy for Russia in Europe,” Moore said. He added that several “illegals,” or Russian spies operating under deep cover and disguised as ordinary civilians, have also been exposed and arrested in recent months.

Moore also said he believed Russia could be “about to lose steam” in Ukraine.

“I think our assessment is that the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to provide labor material in the coming weeks,” he said. “They will have to take a break and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to counterattack.”

“Their morale is still high,” Moore said, referring to the Ukrainians. “They are starting to receive increasing amounts of good weaponry.” Russia, on the other hand, has significantly failed in its initial goals of taking Kiev and overthrowing the government there and is largely using “cannon fodder” for its offensives in eastern Ukraine, he said.

Asked whether the war in Ukraine has made Russia a “target-rich environment” for the UK and its allies to recruit potential assets, Moore said only that “it is our hope” that Russians in diplomatic and intelligence services “reflect on the that they are witnessing in Ukraine” and decide to “counter-attack the system”, as many did during the Prague Spring of 1968.

Moore also repeated what CIA Director Bill Burns said at the forum on Wednesday about the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “There is no evidence that Putin is suffering from serious health problems,” he said.

Burns told the forum that the US believes Putin is “entirely too healthy” despite rumors and speculation that he may be sick.

Asked what lessons China has learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, especially when it comes to Beijing trying to invade Taiwan, Moore said it was too early to tell. But he said Chinese President Xi Jinping is watching the conflict and how the US and West are responding to it “like a hawk”.

“I think he underestimates America’s determination and power,” Moore said. “And that can lead you to miscalculate, particularly in relation to Taiwan.” Moore said, however, that he does not believe a war between China and Taiwan is inevitable.

Moore said MI6 now devotes “more effort to China than any other issue” but that “it’s still a pretty opaque system.”

“On one level, understanding Xi Jingping’s strategic intent is not difficult,” Moore said, citing Xi’s stated desire to dominate key tech spaces.

“But if you go beyond that strategy in terms of how they implement it, how they organize themselves, how they do it, what their tactical intent is and what capabilities they’re building, that’s a black box.”

Moore said it is clear, however, that the Chinese “are helping the Russians in Ukraine by buying their oil.” And while they have been “quite conservative about military assistance” to Russia, “I’m sure if they could provide that and get away with it, they would,” he said.

In terms of the partnership between the countries, “Moscow is the junior partner and the Chinese are in charge,” he added.

Moore also addressed the Iran nuclear deal, telling Sciutto that while I believe the deal should be revived, “I am skeptical that the Supreme Leader will go for the deal. I think the deal is absolutely on the table and the European powers and the government is very, very clear about that. And I don’t think the Chinese and Russians on that issue would block it. But I don’t think the Iranians want that.”