Bundeswehr professor: ‘Putin has no reason to negotiate’

According to political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala, Russian President Vladimir Putin today sees no reason to negotiate with Ukraine.

Putin would only start serious negotiations if he feared he would lose more than he would gain by continuing the war, Masala, a professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur. But that’s not exactly the case right now, he said. “Things are going well for him. Beyond that, there is absolutely no incentive for them to get involved in these negotiations.”

According to Masala, the recent military successes of Russian forces in Donbass in eastern Ukraine can be attributed to two reasons:

– First, he said that the Ukrainians do not have heavy weapons.

Secondly, the Russians have successfully changed their strategy.

“Contrary to the course of the war so far, they no longer advance in large parts of the front, but gather their troops to advance in small parts of the front. As a result, they currently have superior personnel.”

For Ukraine, the question now is whether it should surrender certain areas, because otherwise there is a risk of troops being surrounded there and then possibly becoming prisoners of war. For example, the city of Sjewjerodonezk is a specific example. “If the Russians occupy this city, they will have the Luhansk region almost completely under their control,” Masala said. The success of Ukraine ‘s counterattack in June is now crucial to the further course of the war.

To improve Ukraine’s prospects, Masala favors the delivery of heavy weapons. “You have to change Putin’s cost-benefit calculation.” If the negotiations were to take place at some point, they would be extremely difficult. “And this is simply because Ukraine does not want to leave any territory and the Russians do not want to withdraw from Ukraine. Therefore, these negotiations will keep us busy for a long time. The truces will be very unstable, the battles will flare up again and again.This is not a two or three week process.

Putin is not in danger

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj had already made it clear that any negotiating result would have to be approved by the people in a referendum. “Because otherwise it is not durable. Then it will end in chaos,” warned Masala.

Masala does not believe Putin’s success depends on politics and perhaps his physical survival. “The situation at the moment is that Putin is waging a war that is costing Russia dearly and no one is embracing it. So the internal power supply system seems stable. In addition, Putin can sell a lot as a domestic victory through “I do not think his position is in jeopardy.”

One can only speculate about Putin’s current war goals, he said. “Whether it is enough for him to extract Donbass from Ukraine and the land bridge to Crimea – which would correspond to 15 to 20% of the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany – or if he wants more, we do not know. He has announced more.” There are speculations that Putin wants to carry out attacks in the capital Kyiv again from the unified Donbass.

Although Ukraine is receiving military aid from the West, Putin has not yet spent his dust. It could, for example, declare a state of war and then order a general mobilization. “He avoids this for good reasons,” Masala said, “but he still has options.”