By the end of 2022 the war in Ukraine, says Blinken – It will last ‘months or more’, says Sullivan

Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken has told European allies that the United States believes the Russian war in Ukraine could last until the end of 2022, two European officials told CNN, as more and more US and European officials say in the conflict.

Many of the officials who spoke to CNN said it was difficult to predict exactly how long the war would last, but several officials said there was no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ultimate goals had changed and were unlikely to pursue double standards. unless they suffer a military defeat.

The thought that this could be a long-term conflict represents a remarkable change from the early days of the war, when Russia was expected to quickly occupy the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and underscore Moscow’s failures on the battlefield.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday that the fighting would continue “for months or more”, while two other European officials said they believed the fighting in eastern Ukraine could last four to six months and then lead to a stalemate. .

Blinken “discussed with his counterparts our concern that the conflict could be prolonged, but all his commitments revolve around the best way to end it as soon as possible.”

Insist on support with weapons

UK Secretary of State James Cleverley said this week that the start of new Russian fighting in Donbass could be a few weeks away, telling reporters that “there is a window of opportunity and I think that is why nature “Our support is so important that we provide the weapons, the equipment that the Ukrainians need to do the job they need to do.”

U.S. officials say the additional military support to Ukraine this week is a continuation, but say that part of what led to the reinforcement – and additional support – is the Ukrainians’ efforts on the battlefield.

A second senior State Department official said, “We have done a lot and so we believe and have always believed in our Ukrainian partners. But as the struggle grows, so does our commitment to give them weapons and equipment that they can use.” The Ukrainians have used some weapons systems “with great effect”.

Inactivity costs

Officials also acknowledge that the public may be tired of continuing to support Ukraine, and it should be borne in mind that inaction would be even more costly.

“You can not defend democracy for free. It just does not work that way,” said Cleverley. “The visible cost is in human lives. We have discussed the number of people killed and injured during this conflict, but it has a financial cost and you know we will pay for it by raising gas prices.” We will pay for this through general inflation and the people will not like that. “And it is quite understandable that citizens will not like this, but they should also recognize that not acting would cost much, much, much, much more.”