CAD: Solid labor report in the midst of tariff turbulence – Commerzbank

In the midst of all agitation caused by the announcement of the United States of tariffs of 35% on Canadian goods at the end of last week, the report of the Canadian labor market on Friday for June was a very pleasant surprise: 83,000 new jobs were created and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points, despite the fact that the participation rate increased slightly. The only disadvantage was that most of the growth of employment was given in part -time positions. However, the Canada Bank (BOC) will probably overlook this, given that the labor market reports have been very weak in recent months, says Michael Pfister, Commerzbank’s currency analyst.

Increases the risk of a medium and long -term negative impact on Canada

“A cut in September or October is now more likely, if the BOC concludes by then that the real Canadian economy needs more stimulus. This will depend on internal growth and inflation in the coming months. Much will also depend on the future actions of the US administration and if these higher tariff His place delineated two scenarios.

“In recent months, some advanced indicators had recovered some historical minimums, which generated hope that the optimistic scenario would prevail. This is probably one of the reasons why the labor market was recovered again in June. However, after Trump’s last announcement, the risk that tariffs have a negative impact on Canada in the medium and long term has increased significantly.”

“Although Peter Navarro, one of Trump’s main commercial advisors, confirmed in an interview on Friday night that the goods that meet the USMCA will remain exempt from higher tariff weekend.

Source: Fx Street

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