Campaigns for the 2022 elections began with divergences in the largest candidates for the Planalto.
Considered by many experts to be the most important elections since Brazil’s redemocratization, figures known to voters face problems within the parties themselves.
The anchor and the analysts of the CNN Daniela Lima, Gustavo Uribe, Renata Agostini and Leandro Resende provided a current overview of the movements in the presidential race, with analyzes of the slates of Bolsonaro, Lula, Moro and other pre-candidates.
See the full analysis in the video above and the main points in the text.
“Separate the wheat from the chaff”
President Jair Bolsonaro seeks re-election. According to the most recent election polls, he is in second place in voting intentions.
Bolsonaro faces a division within the base of supporters, which can impact the candidacy – and is one of the fears of the main allies.
As Daniela Lima explained, the current government began anchored in three wings: ideological, military and political.
Gustavo Uribe says that before there was a dispute between the ideological and military wings. However, with the approach to Centrão, the political wing gained strength. This alienated the other bases of the government.
Recently, current and former Bolsonaro ministers clashed.
Culture Minister Mario Frias published a series of attacks on the Weintraub brothers. Both are considered opportunists by government officials. Communications Minister Fabio Faria filed a lawsuit against Ernesto Araújo, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, for slander and defamation.
Araújo was considered one of the main members of the ideological wing.
One of the president’s sons also took a position in this intrigue. On social media, Eduardo Bolsonaro said that it is necessary to “separate the wheat from the chaff”. A moment of “purification” of the Bolsonarista base.
Leandro Resende explains that the internal assessment and that of people close to the family is that it is difficult to separate who is still a bolsonarista and who took advantage of the elections.
Thus, one of the main points for Bolsonaro’s ticket will be appeasement within its own base and understanding who may or may not be its ally in the 2022 elections.
surgical action
The main opponent of President Jair Bolsonaro, so far, is former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who leads the polls of voting intentions.
Lula still doesn’t have a deputy defined for his ticket, but everything indicates that the vacancy will be filled by Geraldo Alckmin.
As Daniela Lima explained, this is a signal to the center parties, a sector that the former president tries to attract to his electoral base. A kind of “living letter to the elites”.
However, he suffers from pressures within the Workers’ Party (PT).
Influential figures in the party, such as Rui Falcão and Luiz Marinho, are against the alliance with Alckmin.
However, Renata Agostini says that Lula’s movements and the strength he has within the party to appease the situation are, for now, enough.
According to sources in the party, there are still disagreements about Alckmin, but there is no longer a significant movement to stop this union.
Procession to Moro
Sergio Moro recently joined Podemos. However, there is a possibility that the former judge will change parties and join União Brasil.
Renata Agostini explains that he is considered an “achievement” within Podemos, which is trying to acquire more and more relevance at the national level.
However, according to Gustavo Uribe, the party is concerned about the “bolsonarization” of the acronym. This is because Moro attracts many supporters of the current government.
Thus, it would be necessary to “debug” who should join the party or not. In addition, sources in the acronym understand that the ex-judge should identify more with the center, also avoiding this movement to the right.
Identification is also the main point that he will have to take into account to change parties or not.
According to Gustavo Uribe, Moro has consulted with other political figures, asking them about the situation.
Álvaro Dias said he talked to the former judge and warned him that “one thing is an alliance, another is choosing a party. It has to have identification”.
Racha no MDB
Simone Tebet is the current pre-candidate for the presidency by the MDB.
However, with the poor performance in the first electoral polls, one wing of the party believes that it should not continue as indicated by the acronym, being possible to compose a ticket as vice or else remaining only as support.
Tebet, on the other hand, does not think about being deputy.
One way out would then be to have the support of other parties, another difficult task.
Michel Temer, Tebet’s main supporter as a candidate, is pressured to make an agreement with the PSDB and convince her to be João Doria’s vice president.
legacy blueprint
João Doria also has obstacles to overcome within his party, the PSDB.
As Daniela Lima explained, in order to be able to launch himself as a candidate for the presidency, he created rows with several people within the acronym. The main one is Aécio Neves.
Another point is that he also did not appear in the first electoral polls, which was a source of trauma for the party, which did not have a good campaign with Alckmin in the last elections.
So, the analysis is that if he doesn’t get better results until April or May, there will be pressure within the PSDB to make a composition and even the possibility of not being a candidate anymore.
To avoid this, Doria has put together a plan with a team of experts.
In addition, he called Rodrigo Maia to be his government coordinator.
In conversation with the anchor of the CNN, Maia said that the government plan they intend to present will discuss the problems of Brazilians, not Brazil, waving to deputies to help them, even if they do not support the governor.
“Government plan that will be bequeathed to Brazil,” he said.
Reference: CNN Brasil
