On the morning of October 7 missiles were seen in the sky by attendees of an electronic music festival in Israel, close to the border with the Gaza Strip. A few hours later, the event that promoted “unity and love” turned into a scene of horror. Hamas militants invaded the site and nearby areas, where they found 260 bodies. In total, 1,400 people died.
Since the terrorist attack by the radical Islamic group, the Jewish country has launched a counteroffensive and carries out daily bombings in the Palestinian territory, where more than 4,000 people have died. Israeli tanks have been concentrated for days on the border with the Gaza Strip, strengthening the hypothesis of a ground operation, expected in the coming days.
On October 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited an Israeli army base and asked soldiers: “Are you ready for the next phase?” “The next phase is coming,” he said.
Both the Prime Minister and the Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi stated that the war will be long.
“This is our darkest hour. (…) This will be a long war. There will be ups and downs, there will be difficulties, the people here are united and prepared to take the necessary measures,” said Netanyahu.
Land incursion
For the professor of Geopolitics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Fernando Brancoli , an incursion is imminent. According to him, military action could last months.
“We are talking about military action that lasts more than 6 months and the expectation is at least 8 months,” he told CNN .
Uria Fancelli a specialist in International Relations, believes that the conflict in Israel will last longer than the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than a year and a half.
“It will last much longer than the war in Ukraine. This is already a conflict that has lasted for many decades”, he pointed out. in an interview with CNN .
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In evaluating Sandro Teixeira Moita professor of Military Sciences at the Army Command and General Staff College (Eceme), without military action in the Gaza Strip, Israel will have difficulty containing new attacks by Hamas and other radical Islamic groups in the future.
“The feeling we see in Israeli political and strategic speeches is that action is necessary because a border has been crossed that had not been crossed. Hamas has demonstrated a sophisticated attack capability. Israel feels, even if Gaza is a trap, it is necessary to enter there to end Hamas”, said Moita in an interview with CNN .
The Eceme professor highlighted that urban combat is one of the most difficult missions to be given to a fighting force.
Experts warned of the risk of a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip, a densely populated territory, unknown to Israeli soldiers and full of tunnels created by Hamas.
Uriã highlighted that it is not possible to know what Israel will do after advancing into the territory, however, he listed some possibilities: “enter, end Hamas and leave; occupy the region; enter and pass control of the region to the international community; or let the Palestinian authority take over.”
Humanitarian crisis
The Gaza Strip has faced a humanitarian crisis since the start of the conflict with daily bombings and the “total blockade” imposed by Israel, interrupting food supplies and cutting off electricity to the Gaza Strip.
More than 4,000 died in the territory and thousands became ill. Hospitals have already exceeded their maximum capacity. One is using ice cream trucks as makeshift morgues to supplement hospital morgues, which are full.
Other hospitals are struggling to stay open while fuel, water and electricity are running low.
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More than 60% of primary care facilities are closed and hospitals are on the verge of collapse due to a lack of power, medicine, equipment and specialized staff, according to a statement from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). ) on Thursday (19).
Fuel shortages are causing residents of the Gaza Strip to resort to using contaminated water, as most of the water is not drinkable because it needs treatment units for processing, which requires fuel, he said Hiba Tibi director of CARE in the West Bank and Gaza, at CNN .
For the teacher Fernando Brancoli the tendency is to get worse if Israel advances into Palestinian territory.
“The moment this military phase becomes terrestrial, the chance of a humanitarian tragedy is almost certain. We will certainly see a significant increase in civilian deaths, the lack of medicines, which is already clear, will get worse. We will probably see a new phase of the war that is even more brutal,” he said.
New actors
While Israel fights the radical Islamic group Hamas in the Gaza Strip, tension is increasing over the opening of a new war front, against the Lebanese Hezbollah, in the north of the country.
Hezbollah is an Islamic fundamentalist (Shiite) political and paramilitary organization that operates in the Gaza Strip and several countries in the Middle East. For Israel, their advanced weaponry makes them a greater threat than other Iranian-backed Palestinian groups such as Hamas.
Since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, attacks between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified on the Lebanese-Israeli border, the likes of which have not been seen since 2006, when Hezbollah and Israel fought a war.
For Fernando Brancoli the chances of this conflict turning into a regional war, although unlikely today, are not impossible.
“Nothing prevents that after Israel’s ground military movements, imagining that a ground action by Tel Aviv is imminent at this moment, that the images that will begin to circulate do not generate repercussions on the part of other militant groups and that Hezbollah decides to enter in the conflict,” he said.
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Among other powers that could enter the conflict more incisively are: Iran and the United States.
The supreme leader of Will Ali Khamenei, warned that if the “atrocities” against Gaza Strip persist, “Muslims and resistance forces may lose patience” and no one would be able to stop their actions.”
The US is a long-time partner of Israel and has already declared support for the Jewish country. There are two North American aircraft carriers near Israel and in the event of the movement of Hazbollah military personnel, a more powerful US entry is possible, he pointed out. Brancoli .
“The conflict, which is already brutal at this point, could involve Hezbollah and could involve other powers, be it the USA or even Iran, which would increase the scale of the tragedy. Although we are currently talking about a conflict between Israel and Hamas, there is also the possibility, as things escalate, that other actors may enter the scene, and then we cannot measure the tragedy that could happen in the Middle East”, declared the professor of Geopolitics at UFRJ.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
