Data released on Friday showed that the Canadian economy contracted further in May. CIBC analysts They note that the containment measures needed to stem the third wave of COVID-19 further affected the economy in May, but the relaxation of those restrictions caused activity to rebound sharply in June.
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“With virus cases generally low across the country, the economy has an open path to regain even more ground this summer. However, the Bank of Canada will not rush to anticipate the expected timing of rate hikes with pending challenges, especially in the form of variants of the virus that are already slowing the healing process in other developed economies. “
“The Canadian economy has already started that process with a comeback in June coinciding with the drop in new Covid cases and the easing of restrictions. The preliminary estimate, which pointed to 0.7% growth, was roughly in line with what we had forecast and places the quarterly growth rate in our 2.5% annualized forecast, a touch warmer than the Bank of Canada’s 2.0% forecast. “.
“A strong carry-over to the third quarter from the strong rebound in June leaves the economy in a position to register a high growth rate during the period, provided momentum does not diminish too much in the coming months. While we see growth slowing later in the year, the rest of the summer should see the economy make solid progress, given the low number of new infections and the ongoing reduction in public health measures. “
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