Canada: Spending on goods got a big boost from auto sales in the fourth quarter – National Bank of Canada

The November retail sales report was quite disappointing. Not only did spending on goods stagnate during the month, but as prices rose, this translated into a 0.4% drop in sales volumes, NBC economists report.

Canadian auto sales in Q4 give big boost to spending on goods

“Spending on items correlated with the housing market continued to decline, as did food spending. On a more positive note, auto sales saw another solid expansion in November and were on track to grow no less than 19.1% in annualized terms in the fourth quarter (18.2% in real terms). However, these good times may not last.”

“Remember that several subsidy programs for the purchase of electric or hybrid vehicles expired in January, which probably encouraged many car buyers to make the decision at the end of last year. Therefore, we expect a significant slowdown in this category in the first quarter of 2025. But in the meantime, the large increase in dealer spending will translate into a significant contribution to the fourth quarter GDP growth from the consumption of goods.”

“Including December’s advance reading, we actually estimate that retail sales volumes rose no less than 4.9% annualized in the fourth quarter, the best performance in a year. However, excluding automobiles, sales volumes may have contracted during the quarter, highlighting the extent to which sales were driven by a single category in the final quarter of last year.”

Source: Fx Street

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