The Canadian economy rose at a rate of 5.6% during the first quarter according to data released Tuesday, disappointing expectations. According to analysts at the National Bank of Canada, the report does not change its view of strong growth in the second half of 2021.
Key statements:
“While real GDP growth in the first quarter disappointed consensus expectations, the performance was much stronger than expected a few months ago. As a reminder, nonessential store closures in both Ontario and Quebec in the early months of the year were not auspicious for economic growth. Despite this, Canada’s performance in the first quarter places its economy in an enviable position in relative terms. The country posted the second best performance among G-7 countries during the quarter, bringing the Canadian economy to within 1.7% of its pre-pandemic production (Q4 2019), also the second strongest figure “.
“This morning’s release does not change our view of strong growth in the second half of 2021. After a temporary pause in recovery due to public health measures in the second quarter, impressive growth can be expected as services continue to reopen. It is true that residential activity could return to Earth, but the consumption of services (30% of GDP), which remained depressed until now, could rebound rapidly amid reopens in the second half of 2021. Therefore, Consumption is likely to pick up, all the more so since households accumulated an astronomical excess of savings during the last five quarters (9.5% of GDP) ”.
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