Canadian labor markets strengthened, but are still weak, in December – RBC Economics

December’s labor market numbers are clearly stronger than expected, with headlines and details generally better than feared. Still, the data is notoriously volatile, and the unemployment rate remains nearly a percentage point higher than a year ago and at its second-highest level (outside of the 2020/21 pandemic) since 2017, economists at RBC Economics.

Canadian employment in December faces biggest increase in almost 2 years

“We continue to think that the overall upward trend in the unemployment rate is unlikely to have ended (the 3-month average rate continued to rise in December) with hiring demand (job openings) still well below employment levels. a year ago.”

“The Bank of Canada (BoC) already signaled in December that with interest rates no longer clearly at ‘restrictive’ levels, and inflation returning to around the central bank’s 2% target, the pace of rate cuts will be more gradual and will depend on the evolution of economic data in the future.”

“We continue to expect that the BoC will ultimately need to cut the interest rate to slightly ‘stimulus’ levels this year, below the 2.25% to 3.25% that the BoC currently estimates as the likely range for the rate.” current neutral.”

Source: Fx Street

You may also like