Catalans vote this Sunday (12) in a regional election that offers the possibility of the return to power of a separatist politician who led a separatist attempt in 2017, or of an anti-independence government led by the Socialist Party.
Opinion polls predict a comfortable lead for socialist candidate Salvador Illa over the hardline Junts separatist party and its more moderate rival, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which currently governs the wealthy northeast region.
A socialist-led Catalan government under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would put an end to a decade of separatist governments that roiled Spanish politics and would be a vindication of Sánchez's conciliatory approach to the region.
But whoever wins will likely have to govern with alliances, as no party appears capable of reaching the 68-seat threshold for a majority on its own, meaning this Sunday's vote could herald the start of coalition negotiations that will last far beyond elections.
The Junts candidate is Carles Puigdemont, who was president of Catalonia during the failed attempt to extract the region from Spain in 2017, before fleeing into exile in Belgium.
Puigdemont has faced legal proceedings in Spain for years over his attempt at independence and has been campaigning in the south of France. But he is expected to return home following an amnesty presented by the Socialist government in Madrid that would annul his arrest warrant, and has promised to revive a bid for independence.
Voting closes at 3pm, Brasília time, with results expected around 7pm.
A survey published by the newspaper El Pais last week showed that the Socialists could win 40 seats in the Catalan assembly, with Junts expected to win 34 and the ERC 26.
But some polls showed that around 40% of voters were undecided, so any outcome is possible, and the winning party will likely need to find a governing partner.
If the Socialists win, they could seek an alliance with the ERC or Junts, although both separatist parties have so far ruled out this possibility.
Otherwise, they could try an even more unlikely partnership with the PP, their main rivals at national level.
If they took power, Junts and ERC would seek to lead a new pro-independence government. But some opinion polls predicted they would fall short of the necessary seats, including with the support of smaller separatist parties.
If post-election negotiations fail to produce a deal by August, a new election will take place in October.
Gerard Arlandes, a businessman who voted in Barcelona this Sunday, said he didn't have much faith in politicians.
“I don’t expect anything from politicians. I vote because I am a Democrat. All this is a lot of money and they do what they want,” he told Reuters.
It is not known how the vote will be impacted by Sanchez's surprise five-day break from office last month to consider his possible resignation in the face of what he called a smear campaign directed against his family by right-wing opponents.
Their rupture “greatly mobilized the socialist vote” in Catalonia, said a socialist source.
Source: CNN Brasil
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