Portugal's center-right minority government, led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, will take power this Tuesday (2).
The inauguration comes amid doubts that the government can survive beyond this year, as it faces the most fragmented Parliament in 50 years of Portuguese democracy.
The Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition won the March 10 elections by a small margin over the current Socialist Party (PS).
With just 80 seats in the 230-seat legislature, to pass any legislation, the AD will need the support of either the far-right Chega party, which quadrupled its parliamentary representation to 50 legislators, or the center-left PS, which obtained 78 seats.
“The odds are against political stability, as the government has one of the smallest relative majorities in the history of democracy [portuguesa] and faces fierce opposition from a stronger ultra-right,” said Andre Freire, political scientist at the Lisbon University Institute (ISCTE).
Chega, an anti-immigration party whose rapid rise reflects a political tilt toward right-wing populism across Europe, has demanded government representation or a long-term agreement to support the AD, but Montenegro has repeatedly refused to even negotiate.
Montenegro's position was exposed last week, when Chega rejected its candidate for President of Parliament, who ended up being elected with the help of the PS.
The PS warned, however, that such support was punctual to unlock parliamentary activity.
Montenegro promised tax cuts for families and businesses, higher pensions and salary increases for police officers, teachers and doctors.
He may pass some of these measures in Parliament with the support of the opposition, but the key piece of legislation – and his first big test – will be the 2025 budget.
Failure to approve a budget has, in the past, usually resulted in new elections in Portugal, and analysts expect the AD to be forced to negotiate the spending plan, and possibly other measures, with the PS.
“A lot will depend on mastery and skill in negotiations, but I don’t know if it will be enough to approve the 2025 budget,” said Freire.
He added that any obvious AD-PS alliance could increase Chega's influence in any future election as the sole opposition leader.
Source: CNN Brasil
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