At an event held by Febraban (Brazilian Federation of Banks) this Thursday (11) afternoon, former Central Bank president Ilan Goldfajn said that the economic recovery in Latin America is going better than expected. According to him, the region’s central banks were the first to react in the world.
“When we look at 2024, this reaction managed to keep inflation anchored for the year”, he declared, in a lecture at Febrabantech.
The economist explained that the scenario of concern about inflation at the expense of lower economic growth should be reversed from the second half of 2023.
“Our concerns will reverse, we will be increasingly concerned with growth and less with inflation. That’s because the world is going to be closer to recession and commodities going down,” she said.
Despite the fact that Latin American countries have anticipated the escalation of interest rates to try to contain the rise in prices, Goldfajn said that the beginning of the movement of the Fed and the ECB should put pressure on the continent’s exports and depreciate local currencies.
Even so, according to him, the moment of the global economy diverges from the one in which the pandemic emerged and, later, the war broke out in Eastern Europe.
“We have had three shocks in recent years: the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, completely unexpected, and a third shock of interest rates rising with inflation, but this one we are already anticipating, it is different”, he concluded.
Regarding a probable recession in the United States, the economist says that it will lead to a slowdown in economic activity in Brazil and in Latin American countries.
“If in fact we are going to have a recession in the US, it will take a part of GDP from Brazil, Colombia and other countries on the continent. We will have to face a more adverse world, with our exports falling, because the price will fluctuate and our currencies here in Latin America will depreciate”, he highlighted.
Source: CNN Brasil