The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a drop in the volume of trade in goods in 2022 of 3% – down from the previous forecast of 4.7%.
The director of the Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Services (Cisbra), Arno Gleisner, explained that the estimate is due to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
“It is also expected that there will be consequences for the per capita income of people around the world,” he said.
Arno assesses that the movement of the last decade of rearrangement of productive chairs, with Asia taking over the production that used to belong to the West, will undergo a “partial reversal”.
“Due to the pandemic and war, western markets are looking for alternative suppliers or even domestically, the greatest impact will be on Asia itself, which will lose market”, he said.
This trend, according to him, “is not just a change of suppliers”.
“We will have an increase in costs, flow will be directed towards Asians because they are more competitive and prices are low, it will also have consequences for inflation, per capita income and employment.”
At the same time, the director of Cisbra believes that the rearrangement may be favorable to Brazil: “The country is a major producer of food and other raw materials, it is a reliable source of supplies, and that means that Brazil is one of the change winners.
Anyway, Arno does not believe that this will make Brazil have an increase in the economy of more than 3%, since there are other factors that influence the growth – or not – of the Brazilian GDP.
Source: CNN Brasil
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