China will authorize families to have up to three children. After having expanded to two children between 2013 and 2016, the one-child policy that existed since 1979 is now finally ending. If at that time the population was too large and with a growth rate so high as to slow down economic growth, now it is the aging of the population to cause fear for the economy.
“It is a policy that does not respect individual rights because it is the state that decides how many children a couple can have,” he explains Alessandro Rosina, full professor of Demography and Social Statistics in the Faculty of Economics of the Catholic University of Milan.
It is difficult to imagine such a policy in another country. «At that time China exceeded one billion people, with the under 25 who were 55% of the population and the over 65 who did not reach 5%. This choice slowed growth, stopping it at one and a half billion. It has served from the point of view of overall growth, but it has led to aging and an internal imbalance for the ages: the under 25s are halved and the over 65s surpass them ».
Few young people and many old people is the problem that Italy also has without having applied Chinese policy. “It has achieved a reduction in the birth rate, much less than two children per woman, which maintains the balance between generations, not implementing family support policies,” explains Rosina. So here the needs and costs of an elderly population increase, while the labor force of the younger generations decrease as in China.
The key step is the work of women. “In a society that has less stability it is important that both people in a couple work, but this can only be done if they exist. childcare services, parental leave for both balanced parents, corporate welfare such as reversible part-timeExplains the demographer. These instruments are in the family Act, but they arrive years later than in other countries. «Even in China it is not enough to say: ‘You can have children’. Supportive measures are needed especially in large cities where expectations and lifestyles are similar to those in the Western world. On this she is still unguarded ». These are economic aspects, of family-work reconciliation, of childcare services.
Common is the theme of the aging of the population. Italy has one longevity similar to that of other developed countries, but a much lower birth rate. “With an ever-increasing number of elderly people being equal, we have fewer and fewer young people and it is difficult to make sustainable a society in which the demand for assistance for the elderly increases and the workforce decreases, especially in a country with high public debt” .
The problem is not the decrease of the population, but the increase of the elderly. “For this we must also increase the youth and female workforce, together with the welfare, it allows to form families and for women to reconcile career and motherhood ». However, the times are long and Italy starts with years of delay compared to other countries that have applied these policies for some time.
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