April data confirm the impact of the commercial war escalation last month. The impulse of growth is expected to recover again after the Geneva truce, but uncertainty persists, reports ABN Amro economist, Arjen Van Dijkhuizen.
April data confirms the impact of the commercial war escalation last month
“China’s monthly activity data for April published this morning showed the impact of the commercial war escalation between the US and China last month. After an acceleration in March helped by commercial anticipation and stimulus, the annual growth of industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment decreased again in April. Industrial production was slowed to 6.1% year -on -year Consensus: 5.7%), and at 0.2%intermennsual adjusted seasonally (March: 0.4%).
“This suggests that the supply remains stronger than demand, with the domestic demand affected by the fall of the real estate sector and weak confidence. Fixed investment was slowed to 4.0% year-on-year in January-April (January-January-March/Consensus: 4.2%). Meanwhile, April data confirmed that the real estate sector has not yet left the crisis, with the annual contraction of investment in properties in properties and sales of properties in properties and sales of properties residential deepening.
“Facing the future, we hope that the impulse of growth will recover again in the coming months, after the truce agreed by the US and China in Geneva last week, with bilateral tariffs temporarily reduced to 30% (on Chinese exports) and 10% Preferentials of China’s loans are reduced by 10 basic points tomorrow, reflecting similar cuts in policy rates earlier this month, and in line with consensus.
Source: Fx Street
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