China: GDP forecast rise after leaders draw line in the sand – Danske Bank

Following the strong stimulus and clear growth message from Chinese leaders, we revised upward our growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.8% to 5.2%. For 2024 we maintain our forecast of 4.8%, says Allan von Mehren, analyst at Danske Bank.

Everything ready for growth

“The stimulus is the strongest coordinated push to lift the economy since the 2008 global financial crisis. We expect China to continue fiscal stimulus measures after the National Day holiday.”

“The key to reversing the Chinese decline is to end the housing crisis, which we see as the epicenter of the current challenges. We now expect a gradual improvement in housing over the next year, but not a rapid rebound.”

“China is poised to shift from a disinflationary force to a more neutral force. Since we expect the recovery to be gradual, we do not expect China to become an inflationary force within the next 6-12 months.”

Source: Fx Street

You may also like