China: GDP growth in the second quarter probably remained above 5% – Standard Chartered

The growth of the second trimester could have moderated to 5.1% year -on -year (4.7% previous), decreasing below 1% in intertrametral terms. The official PMI survey suggests that the demand improved month by month in June, supporting the production activity. The anticipation activity probably supported exports growth; The highest prices of oil may have raised import growth. IPC inflation returned to positive territory in June; The deflation of the PPI may have remained above 3% year -on -year, Standard Chartered economists report.

Growth was probably moderated, but remained resistant in the second quarter

“The official manufacturing PMI bounced to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May due to the improvement in new orders and production. Meanwhile, the average reading dropped 0.5 points from the first quarter to 49.4 in the second quarter, indicating an integrametral deceleration, partially reflecting the impact of the tariff marginally in the second quarter, suggesting stable performance without significant improvement or fall. 5.4% in the first quarter. “

“The performance of the real activity probably remained solid in June. The growth of industrial production (IP) could have recovered seasonally at the end of the quarter. The monthly growth of investment in fixed assets (FAI) probably improved due to a moderation in the fall in housing investment. The growth of retail sales could have been normalized after the impulse of the holidays and an early start of the online shopping festival in May.”

“We estimate that IPC inflation was recovered at 0.1% year -on -year due to the highest stable underlying IPC inflation. Seasonal expansion in loans in CNY, an even considerable government emission and an increase in corporate bond financing. “