The official manufacturing PMI fell to a minimum of three months of 49.3 in July as the demand weakened. The growth of industrial production (IP) and exports may have been moderated by the impact of tariffs and the decrease in anticipation activity. The growth of investment in fixed assets (FAI) and retail sales was probably recovered from the June fall, partly due to standardization. IPC inflation may have become negative, while the deflation of the PPI was probably moderated by an increase in raw material prices, Standard economists report Chartered, Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding.
PMIS indicate a general deceleration in July
“The official manufacturing PMI of China dropped to 49.3 in July from 49.7 in June, since the PMI of new orders fell 0.8 points in contraction territory. In addition, the new export orders fell 0.6 points, which suggests a weaker external demand before the global reciprocal tariffs of US Production PMI dropped 0.5 points to 50.5.
“We hope that the growth of exports and industrial production (IP) has slowed down the weakness of the demand, the decrease in the activity of anticipation and the impact of tariffs. Import 2 years, with housing investment probably maintaining as a key ballast.
“IPC inflation may have fallen to -0.4% year -on -year in July after an ephemeral rebound in June, since the food CPI probably fell for another month and the IPC of services probably remained weak, compensating the increase in fuel prices. The deflation of the PPI was probably moderated, partly due to an increase in the prices of national raw materials. Total Social Financing (TSF) accelerated even more thanks to a solid financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. “
Source: Fx Street
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