China: The current account surplus is expected to be extended to a maximum of ten years – Standard Chartered

The commercial surplus of goods could be reduced in the second half of the year due to the standardization of early exports and an increase in imports. The commercial tourism deficit could decrease in 2025 as the Visa exemption policy of China drives incoming tourism, Standard Chartered economists report.

Net exports will probably continue to be a growth engine in 2025

“The current account surplus (c/a) of China reached a new quarterly maximum of 165,000 million dollars in the first quarter, according to the balance of payments (BOP). Medium of uncertainty about US tariffs. In addition, imports decreased year -on -year due to the weak demand and fall in raw material prices.

“However, the contribution of net exports to growth could be moderated in the second half of the year. We hope that the commercial surplus of goods will be reduced in the second half of the year as the advance export orders are normalized and the tariff Second half of the year, partly due to base effects, but could persist due to the still weak domestic demand. “

“We review our forecast of the C/A surplus by 2025 to 2.8% of GDP (from 1% previously) since (1) the commercial surplus of annual goods is expected to reach a historical maximum this year due to the solid performance of the first semester; (2) it is expected that the commercial deficit of annual services will be moderate as the incoming tourism probably expands faster (due to the expansion of the expansion of the policy of exemption of China Visa) that outgoing tourism (due to the growing concerns of local students about studying abroad);