Ho Woei Chen, UOB Group economist, analyzes the latest results of the main Chinese indicators.
Main conclusions
“The fall in Chinese PMIs continued into December as its COVID-19 outbreak worsened following a sharp reversal of its zero-COVID policy on December 7.”
“Both the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs printed below expectations and fell beyond their lows during the Shanghai lockdown in April-May 2022, to their lowest level since February 2020.”
“We are updating our 2022 and 2023 GDP forecasts to take into account weaker-than-expected data in 4Q22 to date, as well as the earlier-than-expected reopening of borders in China, which will likely contribute to an economic rebound. more acute this year when herd immunity is achieved. China will reopen its borders to international travelers starting this Sunday (January 8). In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics had revised China’s real GDP growth to 8.4% for 2021 (8.1% previously), a higher base of comparison for 2022.”
“We expect Q4 2022 GDP growth to slow to 2.2% yoy from 3.9% yoy in Q3 2022 amid the COVID outbreak. Our updated forecasts for China’s 2022 GDP growth and 2023 now stand at 2.8% (from 3.3%) and 5.2% (from 4.8%), respectively.”
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
