A new Chinese aircraft carrier with technology almost equal to its American counterparts could be launched in February of next year, according to an analysis of satellite images carried out by a think-tank headquartered in Washington.
In images provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the aircraft carrier — known only as the Type 003 — can be seen nearing completion on Oct. 23 at Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai.
Installation of major external and internal components, including the power plants and the aircraft launch system, appears to be complete or on the verge of completion, CSIS said.
Only a few additional items — such as radar and weapons systems — still need to be installed before the ship can head for the Yangtze River, analysts added.
“Based on the available information and the progress observed in Jiangnan, the authors estimate that Type 003 will be released in between three and six months,” said CSIS in a commentary posted on November 9th.
Once completed, the ship will be China’s third aircraft carrier and second to be produced domestically.
But unlike its sister ships the Liaoning and Shandong, experts said the Type 003 will feature more advanced aircraft launch technology, in line with the catapult system used by US carriers.
The new launchers will allow China to launch a greater variety of Type 003 planes with greater speed and more ammunition.
Matthew Funaiole, senior member of the CSIS China Project, said the Type 003 would be “the first foray by the Chinese military with a modern aircraft carrier.”
“This is a very significant step,” he said. “They are really committed to building an aircraft carrier, and they continue to push the boundaries of what they are capable of doing.”
Arms run
China now has the largest naval force in the world, and aircraft carriers are the main ships in the fleet of any great power.
The massive ships are essentially a mobile air base, allowing for the rapid and long-term deployment of aircraft and weapons at a combat site.
But its value is not just in terms of combat capability, Funaiole said. They also have great value in terms of diplomatic prestige and “power projection”.
“China wants to have a world-class navy. She wants to signal the world that she has a world-class navy (e) trying to convince nations in the region or around the world that she is on an equal footing with the United States,” he said.
And the symbol of American naval power internationally is its aircraft carrier fleet, Funaiole added.
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was an unfinished Soviet-era ship that Beijing purchased from Ukraine in 1998, upgraded and finally commissioned in 2012.
The Chinese military used the technological knowledge gained from this ship to build its first domestic aircraft carrier, the Shandong, which entered service in December 2019.
But while China’s first two aircraft carriers increased their naval power, their capacity was still far behind those owned by the US, which has a total of 11 ships in service.
Furthermore, both Liaoning and Shandong were based on outdated Soviet technology. These two carriers used the ski jump launch system, where the planes simply took off from a slight ramp, while the American carriers used a more advanced catapult system to launch their aircraft.
Aircraft launched by catapults can be propelled into the air faster and with greater amounts of fuel and ammunition, giving them an advantage over aircraft launched by ski jumps, which rely on their own power when taking off.
The Type 003 appears to have the same catapult technology as US aircraft carriers, Funaiole said, and may even have advanced to the use of electromagnetic launchers — surpassing the steam-based launch systems still used on all ships except the ones. newest in the USA.
With the new launch system, China can deploy a new mix of aircraft at sea, including vessels with early warning and control aircraft, tankers and electronic interlocking aircraft.
A US Congressional research report done in October stated that the Type 003 should have a displacement of about 100,000 tons, comparable to an American carrier of the same class.
However, despite the advanced launch system, Funaiole said there are still signs that the Chinese aircraft carrier is lagging behind those of the Americans, who have more catapults, a larger airway and more elevators to allow for more positioning. aircraft speed.
All US aircraft carriers are also nuclear powered, while the Type 003, according to Funaiole, would run on conventional steam propulsion, which would limit its range.
“(Although) this may be a lesser factor for China at the moment, as many of its interests lie in the near seas,” he said.
US naval advantage
According to analysts, there is an important factor that will allow the American fleet to remain superior to that of China in the near future: practice.
The United States has operated aircraft carriers in both combat and peacetime since before World War II, and has vast experience in manning the ships and integrating them with the rest of its navy.
“We’ve been in carrier operations for generations after generations and we have a number of different operators, engineers and technicians who have worked on them who can pass that knowledge on to those who come after them,” said Funaiole.
By comparison, China has only operated aircraft carriers since 2012 and this experience gap is not “something you can just skip over,” Funaiole added.
Alessio Patalano, professor of warfare and strategy at King’s College, London, said that modern aircraft carriers have “incredibly complex capabilities” and that the development of technology is far from using them effectively.
“This complexity is a result of both the difficulty of developing and harmonizing technologies to operate air wings from a mobile platform, and the challenge of building a ‘group’ of warships to support and protect it,” he said.
China also has little experience in fielding the right mix of support ships in what the US Navy calls an aircraft carrier strike group. This includes destroyers and frigates to provide defense against submarine and air attacks, as well as having ships to serve and supply the combat ships that make up the attack group.
“Very few countries have carriers, and even fewer have carriers that can maintain a high operational pace, under all weather conditions, night and day,” said Patalano.
Getting Latest Technology
Once the Type 003 is released, it will need to be tested and fully equipped before it can be commissioned and officially put into service.
Initially, the US Department of Defense estimated that the Type 003 would be ready for active service in 2023, but it has now pushed that date back to 2024.
The Shandong aircraft carrier also took two years from launch in 2017 until it finally entered service in 2019. Also, if the Type 003 aircraft carrier is using electromagnetic launch technology for its catapults, it may have difficulty operating them. .
Even the US had difficulty using the same system at its latest carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, leading to long delays in deployment. Then there is the question of the latest aircraft for the new aircraft carrier.
“The challenge in judging an aircraft carrier program is to look beyond ship building,” said Carl Schuster, former director of operations for the Joint Intelligence Center at the US Pacific Command.
China’s prototype J-31 fighter, a fifth-generation aircraft similar to the US Navy’s F-35s, has just been unveiled, Schuster said. With several years of J-31 development remaining and then forming a folding air wing thereafter, Schuster estimates 2026 before the Type 003 is fully operational.
Funaiole said there were still no signs of building a fourth Chinese aircraft carrier, although there were rumors that one was being developed or built. “I didn’t see any visual evidence of that,” he said.
In addition, Funaiole said Jiangnan shipyard was showing evidence of a shift in the accelerated pace of military shipbuilding seen in recent years.
Satellite images seemed to show a renewed focus on ordering commercial ships — including cargo ships and oil tankers — rather than producing new ships for the People’s Liberation Navy.
But Funaiole said that rather than slowing China’s naval development, the office building could be helping.
“(This) massive push for commercial production is valuable,” he said. “This generates important revenue and part of that revenue probably helps drive military modernization.”
Brad Lendon of CNN contributed to this report.
*This is a translated story. Read the original in English
Reference: CNN Brasil
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