Climate, catastrophic floods could become 14 times more frequent

Catastrophic floods such as those that hit Germany, Belgium and Holland in recent days could become more and more frequent, for blame for global warming. At worst, they could occur 14 times more often than today, by the end of the century.

Researchers already knew that higher air temperatures – caused by the climate crisis – indicate that the atmosphere may hold more moisture, which in turn leads to more severe downpours.

But a new analysis by Newcastle University in the UK evaluated the role of slow storms in causing devastating floods in Europe. The slower a storm moves, the more rain it dumps on a small area and the greater the risk of severe flooding.

The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used Met Office computer models to assess the change in slow storms in a scenario where carbon emissions are not reduced and continue to increase.

“This study shows that in addition to the intensification of precipitation with global warming,” he explained to Guardian Lizzie Kendon of the UK Met Office, “We can also expect a big increase in slow storms. This is very relevant for the recent floods observed in Germany and Belgium, which highlight the devastating impacts of this type of storm ”.

Scientists believe the rapid warming of the Arctic may be the main cause of the slowdown in weather systems: the phenomenon has already been linked to the devastating heat waves in Russia and floods in Pakistan.

The study also showed that the largest increase in slow storms on land occurred in the summer. AND all of Europe, including the UK and Scandinavia, is at risk from extreme thunderstorms.

“Governments around the world,” explained Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University, “have been too slow in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and global warming continues apace.”