The risk of forest fires will continue to increase in the coming years due to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean, as estimated by a new international scientific study. On the other hand, however, he points out that there is scope for human actions and policies that can play a critical role in reducing the risk of fire.
The researchers, led by Dr Matthew Jones of the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, who published the paper in the journal Reviews of Geophysics, confirm that anthropogenic climate change is a key factor in the increase risk of forest fires worldwide, as dry and hot conditions are created that favor the initiation and spread of a large and difficult to control fire. As the temperature of the planet increases in the future, so will the risk of fires.
Climate models show that this is especially true for areas such as the Mediterranean (where Greece is) and the Amazon in South America. If, however, the rise in average global temperatures eventually reaches 2 to 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels, then it is estimated that almost all regions of the planet will become more fire-friendly.
According to the study:
– The duration of the annual fire season has – on average – increased worldwide by 14 days per year (27%) during the period 1979-2019.
– The frequency of days with extreme fire weather has increased by 10 days per year (54%) on average globally over the same period.
– On the other hand, globally, the total area burned by fires showed a decrease of about a quarter or 1.1 million square kilometers in the years 2011-2019. Much of this decline (590,000 sq km) has been in the African savannahs, where 60% to 70% of the world’s burned land occurs each year. But large increases in burnt areas are observed in other regions of the world, e.g. in Siberian and North American forests.
Link to the scientific publication:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000726
Source: Capital
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