Given the increased demand for flights and the high cost of jet fuel, the price of airline tickets in Brazil should continue to rise in the coming months.
According to a projection by the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), made at the request of CNN, the tendency for the coming months is for the cost of tickets to continue under pressure, with a forecast of a rise between 5% and 10% in the amount paid by the consumer.
The CNC survey highlights that, between the months of May and 2021 and this year, the price of airline tickets in Brazil had an accumulated increase of, on average, 89%.
Currently, of the almost 400 items analyzed monthly by IBGE in the basket of products of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), airline tickets are in fourth place among those that have increased the most.
In May of this year, according to the institute, plane tickets were the item that most contributed to the monthly rise in the IPCA.
CNC also points out that, despite the 89% rise in the period, and 102% if analyzed since September 2020, prices have risen after a sudden drop.
From March to August of that year, the most restrictive period of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was an average drop of up to 48% in ticket prices, due to reduced demand for flights in that period.
The economist points out, however, that in relation to February 2020, the accumulated increase was 4%. In other words: prices, after the abrupt drop at the beginning of Covid-19 in the face of low demand for flights, are close to pre-pandemic levels.
“When you cut half the price and then double it, you have very little variance. Although the 4% increase is small, we have had a very strong readjustment, if we take the last 12 months”, analyzed Bentes.
As shown by data from the Viajala flight search engine, the value of air tickets has almost tripled compared to the period before the pandemic.
A survey by the company indicates that the average price of the round trip between São Paulo and Salvador, for example, went from R$ 469 to R$ 1,288 (174%).
The Rio de Janeiro-João Pessoa stretch went from R$849 to R$2,060, an average increase of 142%. Flights between São Paulo and Recife ranged from R$581 to R$1,359: a difference of 134%.
Despite the upward trend for the coming months, pointed out by the survey, tickets should have an even higher value at the end of the year, when demand tends to be higher, as explained by Bentes.
“That fuel, food and energy inflation is reaching the service sector – and airfare is a service. The trend in view of the typical seasonality of this type of service is that there will be pressure in the last quarter of 2022. As we are facing a window of opportunity, prices should not rise so much in the short term, but at the end of the year. Anyone who can anticipate the purchase of the air ticket will probably be doing a good deal”, guides the economist.
aviation costs
One of the two factors that directly affect the final price of tickets, aviation kerosene recorded the highest price per liter since the beginning of the weekly survey by the ANP (R$ 5.46893) started in December 2019.
According to Bentes, fuel is basically affected by two factors: exchange rate and oil price. The economist believes that both tend to have a reduction throughout the year.
On the other hand, demand should continue to grow. He says that on the balance, the weight of high demand should be greater than the fall in the exchange rate and the cost of oil. Hence the estimates of further increases in the price of airline tickets.
Bentes explains that, for every one percentage point increase in the exchange rate, the price of aviation kerosene rises by 0.67 percentage point.
For each increase of the same magnitude in oil, the fuel varies by 0.61 percentage point.
high demand
Data from Kayak, a search engine for air ticket prices, shows that there was 500% more demand for the main domestic and international destinations compared to the same period in 2021.
Despite the high demand, the president of the Brazilian Federation of Accommodation and Food (FBHA), Alexandre Sampaio, expressed concern about the tourism sector, which, according to CNC, had a loss of R$ 485.1 billion between March 2020 and January 2020. 2022
“It is necessary for governments to look at our sector and for oil prices to stabilize so that not only tourism recovers, but jobs are boosted, traders get out of the red and Brazilians can once again enjoy the happiness of traveling and enjoy the beauties of our country”, he said, in a statement issued by the entity.
Source: CNN Brasil
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