CNI reduces from 1.2% to 0.9% the estimate for GDP growth in 2022

The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) reduced from 1.2% to 0.9% the estimate for the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022.

In addition, the entity, which expected a growth of 0.5% for the industrial GDP in the year, started to expect a retraction of 0.2%.

The projections are part of the Conjunctural Report for the first quarter, released this Wednesday (13).

“The review is due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the pandemic, which continues to cause production interruptions in China, persistent inflation and signs of interest rate hikes above what we expected,” the CNI reported.

According to the Conjunctural Report, “the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine impact Brazil directly, through trade flows between Brazil and the two countries, and indirectly, through its effects on commodity prices and supply chains”.

CNI’s expectation for 2022 is that the manufacturing industry will also show a decline in production due to the persistence of problems with high costs, the absence of stimulus measures in the magnitude of 2020 and the delay in the normalization of the supply chain, expected in reason for the war.

The projection for the GDP of the manufacturing industry this year is for a fall of 2.0%.

“On the demand side, a vigorous recovery in real income is not expected, given the persistence of inflation. Added to the high interest rate, which discourages the purchase of higher value goods, the scenario is unfavorable for the consumption of durable consumer goods (cars, appliances), which are already at a low level of production.”

The entity also stated that the mass of real income will continue to be more constrained by inflation than anticipated.

The CNI also raised expectations for the basic interest rate from 11.5% to 13% at the end of 2022.

For inflation, the projection went from 5% to 6.3%.

“The continued increase in the Selic rate, unemployment still high, the slowdown in economic activity and the partial normalization of the pace of international price increases should lead inflation to close 2022 at 6.3%. This scenario considers that the exchange rate should vary around R$5.00 throughout 2022″, informed the entity.

For public accounts, the entity estimated that the country will end 2022 with a fiscal deficit of 0.3%, after a surplus of 0.8% in the generation of wealth in the country last year.