Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow lead in two of the three swing states, which together represent a sure path to an Electoral College victory over former President Donald Trump, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
In Michigan, Kamala holds a 48% to 43% lead over Trump among likely voters. She also leads Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% support her and 45% side with Trump.
But the race is tied in Pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the highest voter turnout of the three states and a centerpiece of any candidate’s hopes to win the White House.
All three states went for Trump in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020.
Of the seven states classified as swing by CNN, Michigan and Wisconsin are the only two where voter ballots still include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — the former independent candidate who suspended his presidential bid and supports Trump.
In Michigan, Kennedy has 3% support and in Wisconsin he has 1%. Support for independent and other party candidates is highest in Michigan, with 6% of likely voters saying they support someone other than Kamala or Trump.
There is less support for these candidacies among likely voters who express the greatest motivation to turn out. Among those likely to say they are extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support the current vice president and 45% the former president.
In Wisconsin, they split 52% Kamala and 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania, they split 50% Democrat and 47% Republican.
The overall results are nearly identical to the last round of CNN polls in these three states, conducted in late September, when Kamala led Trump 50% to 44% in Wisconsin and 48% to 43% in Michigan, with both tied at 47%. in Pennsylvania.
The vast majority of voters in swing states guaranteed their choices. Just 8% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan and 6% in Wisconsin say they haven’t made a choice or might change their mind before Election Day.
Kamala is much closer to Trump when it comes to confidence in handling the economy and further ahead of him in handling democracy in Michigan and Wisconsin, where she also has broader advantages on key attributes than in Pennsylvania, differences that help to explain its stronger performance in the upper Midwest states.
His deficit against Trump in confidence in handling the economy — a prominent election issue and a Trump strength throughout the 2024 campaign — is more modest in these states: just 4 points separate the two in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin, differences that are within the margin of sampling error of each survey.
In contrast, Kamala trails Trump by 8 points on the issue in Pennsylvania. The vice president also has an 8-point edge over the Republican in confidence to protect democracy in Michigan and Wisconsin, compared to a narrow 4-point margin in Pennsylvania.
Likely voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also give the Democrat a relatively wide advantage in perceptions that she is more honest and trustworthy: She leads Trump on that attribute by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 points in Michigan, compared with a margin of 7 points in Pennsylvania.
These voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also say Kamala is the candidate most likely to put the country’s interests above her own: likely Wisconsin voters say this by a 10-point margin and likely Michigan voters say this by a margin of 8 points.
In Pennsylvania, this is an issue where likely voters are evenly split (46% Kamala to 45% Trump).
These voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are more likely than those in Pennsylvania to say the Democrat cares about people like them, by 9 points in the upper Midwest states, compared to a difference of just 3 points in Pennsylvania.
In each of the three states, the percentage of likely voters who say they support Kamala is higher than the percentage who say she shares their view of the U.S., while Trump’s overall support more closely tracks his stance on this issue.
That could suggest that some voters are supporting the Democrat less out of enthusiasm for her proposals than out of concerns about Trump’s character.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a majority of voters who say leadership traits trump issues in their votes are supporting Kamala.
And in every state, about 4 in 10 of his supporters say they are voting more to oppose Trump than to support him, larger than the share of Trump voters who say they are voting overwhelmingly to oppose the Democrat. .
Kamala’s small leads in Michigan and Wisconsin are driven in part by relatively strong performance among white voters and white voters without college degrees, two groups that have traditionally disqualified the Republican Party.
White voters in both states were split almost evenly (48% Trump to 44% Kamala in Michigan, and 48% each in Wisconsin, which has a larger white population than the other two states).
Trump’s margin among white voters without college degrees in those two states lags behind his margin with the same group in Pennsylvania (Trump leads 54% to 37% in Michigan, 54% to 43% in Wisconsin, and 61% to 34% in Pennsylvania).
Kamala holds a wider lead among black voters in Michigan (83% for her to 12% for Trump) than in Pennsylvania (76% for her to 21% for Trump).
The current vice president has significant leads with likely voters who have college degrees in all three states (59% to 36% in Wisconsin, 56% to 36% in Michigan and 59% to 37% in Pennsylvania).
The tighter race in Pennsylvania is reflected between urban and rural voters within the state: Kamala’s lead among likely voters who say they live in an urban area in Pennsylvania (53% to 38%) is much smaller than in Michigan (61% to 31%) or Wisconsin (70% to 28%), while Trump’s lead among likely rural voters is largest in the Keystone State (68% to 30%, compared to 61% to 31% in Wisconsin and 56% to 35% in Michigan).
Likely suburban voters, however, split broadly Democratic in all three states (55% to 40% in Pennsylvania, 52% to 40% in Michigan and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin).
The suburban vote represents about half of likely voters in Pennsylvania, compared to 37% in Michigan and 28% in Wisconsin.
All three states feature competitive Senate races in seats that Democrats are defending. Polls show close races for all three.
Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 48% to 42% among likely voters.
Pennsylvania Democratic Senator Bob Casey has 48% support to Republican Dave McCormick’s 45% in a race without a clear leader.
And in Wisconsin, there is also no clear leader in the Senate race, with Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin with 49% support to Republican Eric Hovde’s 47%.
Compared to southern and western swing states, “blue wall” states have less of a history of voting early or by mail, and only about a third or less of voters in those three say they have already voted.
In Michigan, 36% of likely voters say they have mailed in a ballot or voted early, with Wisconsin at 34% and Pennsylvania at 26%.
This is the first presidential election in which Michigan held in-person early voting, and turnout soared in the first few days across the state over the weekend.
Those who say they have already voted are included in each poll’s pool of likely voters, and in all three states they split sharply in favor of Kamala (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin and 57% to 40% in Pennsylvania).
If these Pennsylvania numbers hold, they would reflect a significant shift in Trump’s favor compared to mail-in votes cast in the 2020 election: Biden won 76% of those votes to Trump’s 23%, according to the state’s election results.
Three-quarters or more of likely voters in each of the three states surveyed say they are at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election.
Nearly 95% or more of Kamala’s supporters in each state express confidence, compared to about 6 in 10 Trump supporters in each state.
Interviews were conducted October 23-28, 2024, online and by phone with registered voters, including 726 voters in Michigan, 819 in Pennsylvania, and 736 in Wisconsin.
Likely voters include all voters registered in the survey weighted by their predicted probability of voting in this year’s election.
The results among likely voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; is 4.8 points among likely voters in Wisconsin
This content was originally published in CNN Research: Kamala leads in Michigan and Wisconsin and draws in Pennsylvania on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
