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CNY weakness should persist — Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse economists they expect the Chinese yuan to continue to weaken in the coming months.

“The Asia FX complex is likely to remain weak in the first part of 2023 given the resilient trend in the USD.”

“You can expect some divergence across the region, depending on the reliance of different economies on manufacturing exports. This is a key reason why the CNY is likely to weaken. The other is that imports are likely to accelerate as expansionary fiscal and monetary policy begin to affect the real economy in the coming months.”

“With the CNY still 3-4% above pre-crisis highs in trade-weighted terms, we expect the Chinese authorities to be more than comfortable with significant CNY depreciation.”

“Within the region, the IDR should prove more resilient in 2023, given its trade surplus and attractive carry trade against the USD, which is among the highest in the region.”

Source: Fx Street

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