Arabica coffee growers in Minas Gerais, a state that accounts for about 70% of Brazilian production of the variety, have started harvesting what they consider to be a poor crop in 2022.
Production is below potential after frost and drought, and coffee growers believe there is a possibility of a cycle reversal in 2023 for generally higher yields.
The 2022 season would be the positive one in the biannual Arabica cycle, which alternates years of higher yields with those of lower yields.
But, faced with the prolonged drought in 2021 and the most severe frosts in decades last winter, many producers welcomed the coffee trees, which, associated with the weather, means that the crop is not high.
At the same time that cultural practices have prepared the trees to produce more in 2023, which would have an impact on the alternation of cycles in the coming years, also affecting coffee flows, a favorable climate is a fundamental factor for an increase in production next year, something which it is not yet possible to predict.
The current focus is right on the 2022 harvest.
“The harvest is starting, by the end of the month everyone will be picking up. The dry weather is good for harvest, we had little rain in the last 60 days,” Lúcio Dias, commercial superintendent of the Cooxupé cooperative, told Reuters.
The Arabica harvest normally starts in mid-May, intensifying in June.
The 2022 Brazilian crop is estimated by the National Supply Company (Conab) at 55.7 million bags of 60 kg, versus 47.7 million bags in 2021, when Brazil had a low year for Arabica, and far from the 2020 record 63 million.
Without the weather, the expectation would be that 2022 production could be closer to 2020, which is now expected for 2023, with the possible reversal of the cycle.
“If it rained a little it would be good for the next harvest. It will reverse the cycle, yes, but we have 90 to 120 days to be sure, we depend on the weather”, said the commercial superintendent of Cooxupé, the largest cooperative and coffee exporter in Brazil, during an event in the sector in Guarujá (SP).
“This year’s crop is very bad, very weak, one of the worst crops we’ve been harvesting in recent years. It just won’t be worse than last year because we are counting on Zona da Mata, otherwise it would be the same”, he added.
For agronomist Francisco Sérgio de Assis, president of the Federation of Coffee Growers of the Cerrado, another important arabica producing region in Minas Gerais, this year’s harvest is starting, but the sector has low expectations.
“We were negatively rewarded by frosts and drought. It was a high crop year and will be medium/low. We are apprehensive, because prices are good, but inputs are at very high prices, and, with future sales, the average price to the producer is not satisfactory”, he said, during the event.
“It is a very difficult crop to estimate, especially from the Cerrado, because it has a thin, toothless rosette,” he said, referring to the formation of grains in the branches.
Although he considers it premature to make projections for 2023, Assis said he agrees that the 2023 crop will be better than the current one.
“This year, especially in the Cerrado of Minas Gerais, the loss due to frost and drought was very large, many people did pruning and maybe 2023 will not reach the ceiling, many crops have been harvested, it starts to return to normal in 2024/25.”
Trading valuation
Executives from major trading companies present at the Guarujá event also agree with the possibility of a better crop in 2023, which would be important to balance the market after a crop lower than the potential in 2022.
“If the weather is normal, if we don’t have frosts or drought, Brazil could have a bigger harvest next year. It’s potential, but it’s too early to say. We need to have the flowers still in October”, said Trishul Mandana, executive director of Volcafe.
Asked about the current harvest, Mandana said he would “agree” that the harvest that is about to begin is below potential and said, without revealing his numbers, that Volcafé has one of the lowest expectations in the market.
For the head of ECOM Agroindustrial’s coffee division, Teddy Esteve, the world will have a small deficit next year because Brazil’s crop “is not big enough”, and “that’s why prices are so high”, in the range of US$ 2.20 per pound on the New York Stock Exchange.
“The next crop will depend on the flowering in October and it is 100% dependent on the weather, it could be 60 or 70 million bags again”, he said.
“If there are no problems with the weather, Brazil will have a fantastic crop, much better in 2023. There will be at least 10 million bags more”
The director general of the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafé), Marcos Matos, agrees, saying that the 2023 season “may be a positive biannual, but it is too early to say”.
He considered that it would be important for this to happen after the drought affected Brazil’s production in 2021 and 2022, limiting recent shipments from the largest global exporter.
Source: CNN Brasil
