Coinbase's chances of winning its case against the SEC are estimated at 70%

The Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange has a high chance of winning the legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a Bloomberg expert believes.

I went into SEC v. Coinbase hearing thinking $COIN would, on this motion, win dismissal of SEC's primary claims (concerning trading) but maybe not staking and brokering claims. I left thinking COIN would win full dismissal. Snippet below and full note here: https://t.co/UfjiByMLzS https://t.co/7Y2Z93Nrwt pic.twitter.com/yLUUEwdVkl

— Elliott Z. Stein (@NYCStein) January 19, 2024

On January 17, 2024, the first hearing took place in the SEC's civil lawsuit against the crypto company. The regulator accuses Coinbase of conducting brokerage, dealer and clearing activities without a license.

At the same time, representatives of the exchange insist that tokens are not securities or investment contracts. Coinbase also said that the SEC did not provide any evidence to support its claims.

Senior forensic analyst Elliot Stein attended the hearing. He listened to the parties' arguments and concluded that Coinbase had a 70% chance of winning its case against the SEC.

According to the expert, before the meeting he allowed the Commission's claims to be partially satisfied. The situation was in many ways reminiscent of the trial involving Ripple and the SEC, so he initially expected a similar verdict, Stein noted.

However, after the meeting, the analyst concluded that the base case in the Coinbase case is a complete rejection of the agency's claims. He considers the company's arguments to be reasonable and have a strong legal basis. At the same time, the court will likely disagree with the SEC's arguments, Stein said.

Previously, several experts spoke about four possible scenarios in the Coinbase case. They noted that they doubt that the trial will be completed soon.