Conclave, because the first smoke came two hours late and what can happen today

We may never know why the first smoke, black, of Conclave Which will elect the successor of Pope Francis came with almost two hours late compared to the forecast on the eve. The time hypothesized by the Vatican press room was 19, the smoke came immediately after 9 pm with Piazza San Pietro who filled with more and more waiting for an election, absolutely unusual, to the first ballot and therefore the operations that are accomplished for the new Pope were made: the request for the name, the dressing.

Because the delay in the first smoke

Several hypotheses were made on the two hours of delay compared to the forecasts in the first smoke. If that of the election to the first ballot was remote possibility for the experts, the others are all plausible, but they will probably never be confirmed given the imposition of silence to the cardinals inside the conclave.

Here’s what may have happened in the three hours and 17 minutes after the “Extra Omnes”.

First of all, the meditation of Cardinal Raniero Cantalamessa may have been particularly long who would delay the first consultation. He would go on for 45 minutes, double the expected.

The number of cardinals is the highest ever: eighteen more than in 2013.

For many of them it is the first time and they don’t speak Italian. This may have extended the voting operations.

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What happens today

Cardinal voters find themselves before 8 in the Apostolic Palace, to celebrate Mass and Lodi in the Paolina Chapel. At 9 and 15 the entrance to the Sistine to recite the average hour and proceed to the first two votes. So the return to Santa Marta for lunch. At 3.45 pm the new departure towards the Apostolic Palace. At 4.30 pm the withdrawal in Sistine with two other votes and at the end, around 7:30 pm, the celebration of the Vespers.

There are two smokes scheduled today if there was no election to the second or fourth ballot: one at the end of the morning, one in the evening, at the end of both the morning and afternoon votes. If the Pope is elected to the first of the two votes scheduled in the morning and in the afternoon, the smoke will be anticipated around 10 and 30 or around 17 and 30.

The historian of Christianity Alberto Melloni explained to the Corriere della Sera: «All the cardinal voters know from last night how many promised or sniffed acclaim have become votes and those who have evaporated the sole view of the cards have evaporated. It is an experience that is often served to confirm nominations because the first requirement of the new Pope is to know how to distinguish sincere cardinals from the liars (Scola started from 25 and did not move). Not everyone, but some from last night are wondering if the sum of the votes collected by the larger groups and smaller bunches can make this morning fly such a high name as to convince others to do it Pope already today ».