After three consecutive declines, the Trade Entrepreneur Confidence Index (Icec), a monthly indicator of the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) increased by 0.3% in December. The data was released this Wednesday (15).
With the increase, the indicator reached 120.3 points, reaching a level close to that of April last year, when the economy contracted due to the implementation of restrictive sanitary measures imposed by Covid-19.
On the scale, 100 is the level of neutrality: below it it is perceived as having a negative perspective and above it as a positive one. Despite the high, the index is still far from the pre-pandemic level of 128.5 points. Throughout 2020, the drop was 13.2%.
During the current year, the indicator fell in eight of the 12 months analyzed. According to CNC, the growth of business confidence in December may be related to consumption expectations for Christmas, as well as the celebration of the end-of-the-year festivities, despite the Black Friday billing having been unsatisfactory.
The survey shows that merchants are still cautious with the behavior of demand, which has not yet fully resumed, according to the Confederation.
The rise in the dollar, interest rates, the low recovery capacity of the labor market and uncertainties regarding the new income transfer program also impacted confidence.
Pressures on production costs, such as electricity, freight and more expensive products, also make entrepreneurs more insecure, especially in terms of stock management.
“There may be perspectives that a good part of the 13th salary will be directed to consumption in commerce, at the same time, the pressure on production costs in the sector, such as electricity, freight, more expensive products and the recent increase in interest rates, require attention, above all, for stock management.
These factors lead to the formation of a scenario of slightly more restricted and difficult economic conditions, affecting confidence”, says an excerpt of the study.
The behavior of the index varies between regions. While in the Northeast it remained stable between November and December, in the Southeast and North there was an increase of 1.4% and 0.6%. In the Midwest and in the South, the indicator was -0.9% and –1.5%, respectively.
This divergence, according to the survey, is due to climate issues typical of each location, demand expectations and price in each of these locations.
Reference: CNN Brasil
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