The Services Confidence Index (ICS) fell 0.4 percentage points from January to February, in the seasonally adjusted series, to 89.1 points, the lowest level since May 2021, informed the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
In quarterly moving averages, the index retreated 1.5 points, the fifth consecutive month of losses.
“Services confidence accumulated the fifth consecutive fall in February, moving further away from the neutral level of 100 points. This month’s result is heterogeneous. The indicators that portray the perception with the present moment maintained the negative trajectory, indicating weak demand at the beginning of the year”, evaluated Rodolpho Tobler, economist of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the FGV (Ibre/FGV), in an official note.
“On the other hand, indicators about the future seem to react, but they are still not enough to reverse the negative trend of recent months. The horizon is still not very encouraging, given that macroeconomic challenges are likely to remain and negatively impact the sector throughout 2023”, he adds.
In February, the Current Situation Index (ISA-S) dropped 2.6 points to 91.0 points, the lowest level since March 2022.
“This retreat was influenced both by the worsening of the indicator that measures the current demand volume, which fell 4.1 points, to 90.2 points, and by the current business situation indicator, which dropped 1.0 points, to 91.8 points. Both return to the lowest level since March 2022 ”, pointed out the FGV.
The Expectations Index (EI-S) rose 1.9 points to 87.4 points, after four straight months of declines.
“There is a decrease in pessimism regarding the prospects for demand and business trends in the coming months. The indicator that measures the expected demand in the next three months increased by 1.5 points, to 87.1 points, and the business trend indicator in the next six months increased by 2.3 points, to 87.8 points ”, completed the FGV .
The quarterly moving average indices show consecutive falls in the confidence of most of the investigated segments in the last four months.
In February, almost 70% of the segments were falling, “indicating that it is a broad movement of the sector, not just some isolated category pulling the result down”.
Data collection for the February edition of the Services Survey was carried out with 1,461 companies between the 1st and 24th of the month.
Source: CNN Brasil
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