Last Thursday (2), the Federal Senate approved the PEC dos Precatórios, which makes room in the 2022 Budget for Auxílio Brasil, a social program that replaced Bolsa Família. The text was changed and, therefore, it must be returned to the Chamber of Deputies. The Congress is evaluating, however, the possibility of slicing up the proposal and enacting only the common points approved in the Houses.
The possibility of slicing was informed by the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). “Not even the market, stock exchange, dollar, businessmen, municipalities, creditors and even more, those who need Brazil Aid can expect a new CCJ, special commission and plenary procedure twice. It is very normal that common texts can be promulgated”, he said.
Technicians and consultants from the two Houses assess the content of the PEC to analyze which points could already be enacted immediately and which would remain for further analysis. In the latter case, the devices in which there is a divergence would have to go through the entire procedure again.
According to CNN analyst Gustavo Uribe, on Friday (3), Pacheco had already taken the decision to promulgate the common points approved in the two houses. However, with pressure from opposition parties, he decided to hold a meeting with party leaders, which could take place this Monday (6), to try to reach an agreement.
Two points can be a consensus for the enactment, according to Uribe. The first is the one that sets a ceiling on the payment of court orders. The second is the review of the spending ceiling. Under the current rule, the limit for federal public sector spending is readjusted by the 12-month IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) ended in June. With approval, the period would be from January to December.
This would open space for fiscal relief to already allow the payment of the Brazilian Aid of R$ 400. The problem is that one of the main points approved by the Senate is to tie this fiscal space to social spending and, if only the common points in the two are enacted. houses, that would be for later. If that happens, opposition senators threaten to go to the Supreme Court (STF).
According to CNN analyst Leandro Resende, the expectation that the PEC will be fully discussed this year is low, as the parliamentary recess period is close.
Impasse of BRL 43 billion
Technicians and legislative consultants also make calculations of which fiscal space would be opened with the common passages in the text that had been endorsed by the Chamber.
According to CNN analyst Iuri Pitta, it is estimated that at least R$ 43 billion would have to wait for a new deliberation by the deputies, which could compromise the reach of the Auxílio Brasil program and other discretionary expenses, including additional ones for the so-called rapporteur amendments in the 2022 Budget.
In these calculations, there would be a fiscal space between BRL 60 billion and BRL 65 billion already possible to be enacted – in the latest estimate of the Ministry of Economy, it would be BRL 62.2 billion, out of a total of BRL 106.1 billion open by the PEC, as a result of the change in the calculation of the spending ceiling.
However, part of this amount would be consumed with the inflation adjustment of mandatory government expenditures on Social Security and the minimum wage, estimated at between R$30 billion and R$35 billion.
For Brazil Aid with a minimum value of R$ 400, it is estimated that more than R$ 50 billion will be needed – therefore, the impasse with the enactment of the PEC by Congress would put in check the intention to serve more than 20 million families, as argued by lawmakers in the discussion of the text in the Senate. The government estimated to increase the assistance in relation to Bolsa Família from just under 15 million to 17 million beneficiaries.
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Reference: CNN Brasil