Coronavirus: ‘bell’ search for 300,000 new deaths in Europe – Greece in high-risk countries

Another 300,000 deaths due coronavirus can cause pandemic in Europe, according to a new study based on estimates of the number of people in 19 European countries (including Greece), who by the beginning of November nor had they been vaccinated against coronavirus nor were they sick because of him, therefore they have no immunity.

More specifically, the model also predicts that a pandemic could lead to about one million more hospitalizations in Europe, a number that largely explains the predicted high number of deaths. This is a bad scenario, but it could become a reality, according to researchers, if precautionary policies are lifted prematurely and citizens return en masse to their old habits.

Coronavirus: Elderly and unvaccinated raise deaths – High-risk countries

The study estimates that the countries with the highest percentage of population at risk of Covid-19 are those with the lowest percentage vaccination, the largest ratio elderly (especially unvaccinated) and the lowest percentage of people who already have coronavirus. As he states, Greece is one of these high risk countries, with Austria, τη Germany, the Netherlands, τη Finland and Slovenia.

It is estimated that there may be large differences from country to country: For example, in Romania, where the percentage of vaccinated population is still very low, 840 per 100,000 people may need hospitalization due to Covid-19 in the future while in Britain only 62 per 100,000. In absolute numbers, in Germany, which has a large proportion of older people, approx 280,000 people may end up in the hospital, versus only 6,300 in Denmark.

The discrepancy is also large in terms of the maximum possible future deaths, both in proportion (from 19 per 100,000 people in Britain to 360 per 100,000 in Romania) and in absolute numbers (from 1,200 in Slovenia to 115,000 in Germany).

“The numbers are shocking”

However, the epidemiologists-infectious disease specialists of the London School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, headed by Dr. Lloyd Chapman and Adam Kucharski, who made the relevant pre-post on medRxiv, according to “Nature”, pointed out that their estimates are for the worst case scenario, according to which all restrictions have been lifted and people are free to come into contact as before the pandemic, so that everyone in the population could potentially become infected, something rather improbable.

Nevertheless, the study rings like a “bell” that the difficulties are not over, as reported by ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ. The analysis sends a warning that even if a country has high vaccination coverage, there may still be waves of hospitalizations and deaths, even if there are no new, more contagious coronavirus strains in the future (which cannot be ruled out).

“The numbers are shocking and, whether they happen or not, people need to know that Covid-19 is not over.”, said Cheryl Chang, an infectious disease modeling specialist at the University of Sydney.

Covid-19, after successive epidemic waves, has killed more than 1.43 million people. From the other side, An estimated 315 million Europeans have received at least one dose of the vaccine against coronavirus.

The British researchers stressed that in countries facing a threat of a serious wave of morbidity and death, vaccination efforts should be intensified on the one hand and non-pharmaceutical interventions continued (eg mask use) on the other.

Here you will see the relevant scientific pre-publication.