Countdown to Europe’s energy self-sufficiency – Nord Stream 1 maintenance has begun

By Haris Fludopoulos

The countdown to Europe’s energy security has begun as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which supplies natural gas to Germany and, by extension, central Europe, has been closed for maintenance since today. However, Russia has already in the last few days reduced the flow of gas to just 40% of the pipeline’s capacity, while serious concerns are expressed as to whether the pipeline will return to normal operation after the end of the maintenance work.

According to Goldman Sachs, the most likely scenario is for the pipeline to remain closed even after the maintenance, which is scheduled to last 11 days, is completed. In such an eventuality, the natural gas market is not expected to return to normal and the turmoil is predicted to continue, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices well above €150/MWh.

At the same time, however, a positive news about the development of the thriller with Nord Stream 1 comes from Canada. In particular, the country decided to defy Kiev’s objections and return the equipment that had been sent for repair from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Canada cited for its decision the fact that the specific equipment is necessary to support EU access. E. in reliable and economical energy. Thus, the Russian turbine necessary for the normal operation of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be returned to Germany normally and repaired despite the sanctions in force against Moscow. For this to happen, Canada will issue a limited-term and revocable sanctions waiver specifically for the Russian turbine.

For its part, however, Russia has declared, through the representative of the Kremlin, N. Peskov, that it will not use natural gas supplies as a means of exerting political pressure and that when the turbine is returned, it will offer more gas to Germany and Europe.

Regardless of the Russian statements, however, it is clear that Germany is preparing for the possibility of a complete shutdown, with Chancellor Scholz stating that “ensuring a stable natural gas supply is currently the government’s absolute priority,” adding that “the government will try with unprecedented speed to build liquefied natural gas terminals and pipelines on the northern German coast. My goal is not to let anyone humiliate us.”

In this environment, finally, it is worth noting that Greece is in a better position as it has three alternatives to Russian gas, the TAP pipeline, the Greek-Turkish pipeline as well as the Revythoussa LNG terminal. At the same time, in the event of a complete interruption of the flow of Russian gas that reaches Greece from Sidirokastro, via the Turkstream pipeline, the plan foresees, among other things, the utilization of lignite units as well as the conversion of 5 natural gas units into oil units, in order to reduce the demand for natural gas and meet the energy needs of the country.