Markets operate this Tuesday (15) with an eye on lockdowns in China, the unfolding of the conflict in Ukraine and monetary policy movements in Brazil and the United States.
Overseas, U.S. futures traded lower this morning, reflecting fears about Russia-China’s rapprochement in the war, China’s “zero-Covid” strategy and expectations of a rise in U.S. interest rates.
This Tuesday (15), the fourth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine should resume after being interrupted yesterday without progress in the discussions.
The day before, after the meeting between China and the United States in Rome, the Biden administration’s security adviser said that the United States is concerned about China’s alignment with Russia. And the US government has signaled that it will impose sanctions on China if the Chinese actually support Russia.
Moscow denies having asked China for help, and the country’s foreign ministry has called the news of alleged support for Russia as “disinformation”.
In addition to the tension with China, expectations about tomorrow’s interest rate decision also weigh on the American market.
With the hope of some progress in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine yesterday and today, analysts think that the Fed – the American central bank – may give greater weight to inflation than economic activity.
Interest rates are expected to rise by 0.25 point, but the Fed may make stronger signals in the statement.
Finally, the advance of lockdowns in China helps bring the rates down. The country has recorded the worst outbreak of the disease since the beginning of the pandemic.
The stock markets melted in Asia and already accumulate drops of 10% in the week. The lockdown affects cities like Shenzhen, which represents 11% of China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is home to global technology companies like Foxconn, one of Apple’s main suppliers.
In Europe, stocks fall reflecting fears with the advance of Covid-19 in Asia and war in Ukraine.
Brazil
In Brazil, the stock market fell for the third session in a row, driven by commodities, which fell sharply yesterday, with lockdowns in Asia and the prospect of an increase in American interest rates bringing expectations of weaker demand.
The signaling of higher oil production also brought down the price of the commodity, which fell more than 5% yesterday and today deepens the declines. The Brent barrel is close to US$ 98, remembering that last week it reached almost US$ 140. On Monday, Vale dropped more than 5%, and Petrobras, almost 2%. Petrobras and Vale together have a weight of 28% on the stock exchange.
Despite the oil truce, and discussions on how to contain fuel increase continue. Analysts are concerned about the measure proposed by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) on exemption from federal taxes on gasoline, which could have an impact of R$ 27 billion.
Indexes
Agenda of the Day
In Brazil, the balance sheets continue to highlight construction companies, CVC and YDQUS.
Source: CNN Brasil
