Covid, a fourth wave? Franco Locatelli: “Absolutely not”

We risk one fourth wave of Covid-19 in autumn? No. It looks pretty safe Franco Locatelli, president of the Higher Health Council and coordinator of the technical-scientific committee. In an interview with Christian family, anticipated by AdnKronos, in fact, explained that “in the light of the widespread vaccination, absolutely not. There is a risk of one resumption of infections: how to avoid it? With attention, prudence and responsibility in behavior. Not by pressing to reopen everything immediately, but proceeding gradually ».

In short, if – as is happening in the United Kingdom – we succeed in to spread the curve between infections, hospitalizations and lethality, we will experience another phase of the epidemic. A phase in which the burden on health systems, at least in countries with high vaccination rates, it will be manageable. And in which, therefore, the number of infections will be useful for other assessments but not so much for new closures or restrictions.

The director of Precision Experimental Medicine of the Child Jesus of Rome, however, invites us to remember that «the virus is always the same. If anything, the two variants that are now more widespread in the country, Alpha and Delta, compared to the strain from Wuhan have greater contagiousness. We do not make the mistake of thinking of a virus which, although it has changed characteristics, is characterized by less power to cause serious illness. What has changed is the country’s immunization status, with 51 million doses administered. This accounts for greater protection from infection“. As we have seen, now mostly unvaccinated young people are infected, and for this reason the syndromes seem perhaps less serious. But we have to wait for more data to really understand the Delta consequences.

The variant, “in addition to the greater contagiousness, seems to have attenuated or completely lost some features: for example the loss of taste and smell. The most frequent symptoms are fever, runny nose, headache and sore throat – Locatelli lists – But this does not prevent it from causing equally serious pathologies ». So how to behave? “The masks must be kept indoors – recommends – because they are the most effective non-pharmacological interventions together with interpersonal distancing. But even outdoors it is advisable to wear them where it is not possible to avoid gatherings O crowds (in line, in queue, in the markets or at a fair). Just as it is appropriate to keep them when in contact with an immunosuppressed person ».

On the issue of diverging the curve of infections with that of hospitalizations and lethality, and on the consequent measures to be taken, he also returned Pier Luigi Lopalco, Professor of Hygiene in Pisa and Councilor for Health of the Puglia Region: “Now that we have the vaccines, the criteria that determine closures must be changed. And the number of positive cases will be used for what it is: a useful data to stem the trend of the epidemic, to monitor the spread of the virus. But what really matters are the hospitalizations. If we get infected, but we will not have serious consequences because the most fragile are protected by the vaccine, it will not be a huge problem ».

Returning to Locatelli and vaccines (the campaign has now reached 55.4 million doses administered), «let’s start with the lethality rates of the virus. Above 80 it is 20%; between 70-79 years it is just under 10%; between 60 and 69 it is 2.8%: that is, one in 30 people dies if they become infected. The resulting message is clear: everyone should be vaccinated also because vaccines have an excellent safety profile. For the over 60s – he concludes – it is even a sort of ‘commandment’».