Covid forecast guru: Coronavirus pandemic to end in March

The estimate that the end of the coronavirus pandemic will occur in March was made by the “guru” of forecasts Covid, head of the Institute of Health at the University of Washington, Christopher Murray in an interview given to SKAI and Alexis Papas.

He added that given the transmissibility of the Omicron mutation, at least half of the population is expected to be infected despite vaccination or previous illness.

As far as Greece is concerned, the peak of the wave is expected to take place in January.

The interview in detail:

Alexis Papachelas: Doctor, thank you very much for the interview. Let me first ask you, what is your forecast, about how long this will last?

Christopher Murray: From what we can understand from Omicron, we believe that it is so contagious, that it will be transmitted to the population in Greece and in every country where it will appear, in a very short time from the beginning, to the peak in four to six weeks. . So the peak of the Omicron wave will take place in January, in Greece.

Alexis Papachelas: What percentage of the population do you expect to present this variant?

Christopher Murray: We expect the micron to infect, probably half the population or more, despite vaccination rates and previous infections with other strains of the virus.

Alexis Papachelas: So does it make sense to try to control Omicron?

Christopher Murray: It is much less serious than the previous variant, maybe 90 or 95% less serious. This is how such large numbers of patients come in, but much less seriously.

Alexis Papachelas: Do you see any special consequences from Omicron, something you did not expect?

Christopher Murray: It has been shown to be much less serious and today we do not really see anything particularly unusual, other than the fact that 80 to 90% of people who become infected have no symptoms at all. So that makes a really big difference in terms of impact on the population.

Alexis Papachelas: Let me come to the political conclusions that you came to after your study in Greece. Schools. Would you open them or keep them closed?

Christopher Murray: To the extent that you have teachers who do not need to be quarantined due to a positive test, we think the schools should be operational.

Alexis Papachelas: So you suggest that we do not look so much at numbers, real numbers? Should we look more at hospitalizations, ICUs?

Christopher Murray: Yes, I think people should stop being intimidated by the number of cases, because they are too big. They have to look at the hospitals or even more, what the government is already doing, that is, they have to look at those who are either in the ICU, or under controlled ventilation or intubation. This number we have to watch, this informs us about the severely suffering from covid. Because it shows us the real consequences. The number of incidents will be frightening, because they will record a record, day by day, until we reach a peak, which will probably come faster than we thought, two weeks ago. Most likely we will see a peak in Greece, you know, in the middle of the month. But focus on those serious cases that end up requiring much more aggressive hospital intervention.

Alexis Papachelas: When do you think this pandemic will end?

Christopher Murray: I think the pandemic, unlike the covid, will end as soon as the Omicron wave ends. So, most likely by March, the numbers will have dropped in most places, because Omicron will be moving so fast. The pandemic will be over, though covid certainly will not be over. And we just have to change and say, ‘Look, this is like the flu. There will be continuity. “People need to be vaccinated, to take the booster dose.”