Covid, La Vecchia: “Other than 600 thousand, the positives are between 2.5 and 3 million”

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Covid raises its head but thanks to vaccinationsto the protocols and ai medications that we have is less scary. Much less. The current positives, he explained yesterday Carlo La Vecchiaprofessor of epidemiology at the University of Milan a Republic, are certainly many more than the official ones. Other than 600 thousand: “Between 2.5 and 3 million“. The reason is that in many they do not formalize with tampons in pharmacies or laboratories their condition, instead managing it autonomously with do-it-yourself tampons and therefore escaping the radar of the ASL and the Higher Institute of Health. This, in all probability, in order not to remain hostage to the exit pad. An attitude that some countries such as the UK have long since thrown in the towel, eliminating the isolation for the positives. But in practice, if La Vecchia’s calculations are plausible, that’s what people have decided for themselves even in Italy.

“Anyone with persistent symptoms swabs. Many of the others, on the other hand, prefer not to have restrictions on freedom. In Great Britain they have taken note of it and no longer require quarantine for positives – confirms the epidemiologist – from us many avoid the official tests to avoid having to lock themselves in the house. The result is that there are 30-35 thousand official daily cases certainly over 100 thousand, in reality. The positivity index is an eloquent spy. At 19% we can consider it high ». From these considerations, the estimate of 2.5-3 million positives actualthree quarters of which are excluded from any official notification.

The subvariants are fueling the current summer wave Omicron 4 and 5 which we have analyzed in detail. Overall, between ascent and descent, considering the beginning of June, it may take a couple of months for the blaze to run out: the sub-variants «have already passed through some countries with limited impact. But between the ascent and descent the wave will take a couple of the summer months. Started at the beginning of June, it will have its peak at the end of the month, presumably it will take all of July to go back down ». However, the expert reassures: “I see no particular cause for alarm. The situation in hospitals remains of limited stress“. The point is that those who had Covid in the beginning are not protected against Omicron 5 and even the 14 million who became infected with the main variant are not entirely safe with the newer sub-variants.

For now, in short, no alarm: «There are no overloads for hospitals, the numbers of intensive care are inflated by patients who have other pathologies and for whom the infection is only concomitant. Vaccines continue to protect us well from serious disease: we no longer see the 50-year-old dying of Covid. However, there is a but… ». Great attention to elderly people And fragile, therefore, that they should not underestimate the virus and undergo the fourth dose given that «in the two to three months following vaccination, the risk of becoming seriously ill is reduced by 70%. It is a protection given by antibodies, therefore not very long-lasting. But it is exactly what it takes to get through the critical summer months and into autumn“. The appointment with the autumn will probably include a new vaccination for everyone with a product updated to the latest variants.

Getting sick is worse – concludes La Vecchia with respect to those who are still reluctant to get vaccinated or to properly conclude the vaccination cycle – I do not understand why out of over 4 million people over the age of 80 only 20% have decided to revaccinate themselves. In Italy, the age limit for the fourth dose is very high: 80 years. In Great Britain it is 65, in the United States 60. If I could I would certainly do the booster ».

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Source: Vanity Fair

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