Covid: the possible consequences of the spread of Omicron BF.7, the variant that is dominating in China

There are no official data, yet the growth of Covid infections in China is a fact. The simultaneous reopening of the borders by the Chinese government has alarmed the World Health Organization and various countries, including Italy, have ordered the mandatory swab for all passengers coming from China. In fact, the non-mandatory tests carried out at Malpensa since 26 December had already detected almost half of positive individuals on flights arriving from Chinese cities.

It has been almost three years since the original version of the Coronavirus spread from China to the rest of the world, subsequently being replaced by the Delta variant, then by Omicron and then by its subvariants, which still continue to afflict many countries.
The main fear of the experts is that the BF.7 strain, now dominant in China, could generate new problems at the viral level. This Omicron BA.5 subvariant is extremely adept at immunity evasion and is believed to be spearheading the current Asian wave. However, each new infection gives the coronavirus a chance to mutate and we know that the virus is spreading rapidly in a country of over 1.4 billion people and which has abandoned its “Zero Covid” policy, abandoning the blockade of entire city ​​and strict containment policies, especially at a time when it is facing a surge in new Covid-19 cases.

The Chinese situation and possible consequences

In China, most people have never been exposed to the coronavirus. In addition, vaccines used by the government have been shown to be less effective against serious infections than Western versions studied on messenger RNA, because they are based on older technology that produces fewer antibodies. Many of these Chinese vaccines, however, were administered more than a year ago, which means that immunity has declined. In addition, the current percentage of vaccination boosters carried out is very low, especially among the elderly. Result: there is fertile ground to favor a mutation of the virus.

“What is happening in China was a risk widely anticipated and envisaged for weeks”, underlines the scientist Alexander Vespignaniamong the world’s leading experts in epidemiological models and forecasting science, the one who in the initial stage of dissemination predicted the Covid-19 pandemic. «In the scientific community there has been a long discussion of the consequences of exit strategy Chinese. There are also published works and all estimates showed huge epidemic waves. Unfortunately the Chinese data are opaque at the moment, but we are talking about very high numbers».

According to Vespignani, who directs the Network Science Institute at the Northeastern University of Boston, where together with his research team he identifies possible scenarios of how a disease could spread, it is possible that 50% of the 1.4 billion Chinese in China will be infected with Covid-19 in the next few monthsa picture that threatens to overwhelm the country’s healthcare systems and further exacerbate global supply chain problems.

«It is surprising that there is amazement and that once again there has been no communication e a clear explanation of what is happening in China and the potential problems for other countries» adds the scientist. “China has been cornered by a series of extremely wrong strategic decisions. The first was a disastrous vaccination campaign that focused on young people but neglected the over 60s; the second a policy of vaccine nationalism with a vaccine that works much less than ours. Now the result is that the Chinese are in trouble: they have to deal with a highly transmissible variant of Sars-CoV-2 such as Omicron, a population that is “badly” vaccinated and the refusal – for political reasons – to acquire Western vaccines.

All of this is a significant source of risk for other countries which still continue to have high epidemic activity. “The main risk lies in the possibility that the high number of infections in China will lead to the emergence of variants that alter the current epidemiological situation» explains Vespignani. “As has been discussed with decision makers on many occasions, the key point is to monitor the emergence and introduction of new variants. Screening and testing at airports do just that. Unfortunately, this need clashes with the fact that many countries had downsized these activities”.

The importance of vaccinating and communicating

«Another element that the Chinese situation highlights is the importance of ahigh protection of the fragile population through booster vaccination campaigns», adds the epidemiologist. «Even this, however, comes at a time when many countries have reduced efforts (including communication) compared to vaccination campaigns».
Therefore, the presence of “a communicative effort by the institutional bodies that explains the situation in an authoritative way and which, without sowing fear, indicates which rational indications and objectives are the basis of the monitoring and screening measures that are being taken these days, becomes important”.

Covid, mandatory tests for those arriving from China: can there be new variants?

More and more people wear masks: is the fear of Covid back?

Scientist Alessandro Vespignani: «Will there be new pandemics? In the meantime, let’s keep an eye on the flu viruses »

Covid, all the answers to doubts about the fourth dose of the vaccine

Covid, what is happening in China and why the WHO is “very concerned”