CPI falls below estimates at 2.0% year-on-year in July

  • The UK CPI rose 2.0% year-on-year in July compared to the + 2.2% forecast.
  • The UK monthly CPI reaches 0% in July compared to the + 0.3% expected.

The 12-month rate of the UK CPI consumer price index stood at + 2.0% in July, compared to the + 2.5% registered in June, falling below expectations of + 2.2%, as reported on Wednesday the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Meanwhile, the core inflation indicator (excluding volatile prices for food and energy items) fell to 1.8% year-on-year last month from + 2.3% in June and below the forecast of + 2.2%.

Monthly figures showed underlying prices hit 0% in July versus expectations of + 0.3% and + 0.5% previously.

Key points (via ONS):

“The greatest contribution to the rise to the 12-month inflation rate of the IPCH came from transportation (0.85 percentage points).”

“The CPI was unchanged in July 2021, compared to a 0.4% rise in July 2020.

“Clothing and footwear, and a variety of recreational goods and services made the largest downward contributions to the change in the CPI 12-month inflation rate between June and July 2021.”

“The price increases of used cars, compared to the falls of a year ago, gave rise to the largest contribution to the change, partially offset and to the rise.”

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